CLV @ BLT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 16 slate
CLV Browns
12
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CLV28%12
BLT72%21
21
BLT Ravens
BET VALUE
MARKET BLT -9.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

CLV
BLT
28% Win Probability 72%
212 Total Yards 289
142 Passing Yards 168
69 Rushing Yards 121
2.7 Sacks 2.7
1.2 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson163 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins43 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jerry Jeudy3.5 rec, 38 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Denzel Boston2.7 rec, 36 yds, 0.1 TD
BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson180 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry68 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.4 rec, 63 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.3 rec, 29 yds, 0.3 TD

Ravens by 8.5

Run it 50 times and Ravens win 72% of them, by 8.5 on average (21-12).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Chidobe Awuzie (Ravens) - winner: Chidobe Awuzie, holding him to 17 yds on just 37% open, 0.9 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • Trey Hendrickson (Ravens) vs Spencer Fano (Browns) - winner: Trey Hendrickson, winning 57% of reps for 2.1 sacks and 4.3 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Kyle Hamilton, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs Tyson Campbell (Browns) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 61% of routes for 5.9/7.2, 57 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Ravens — a 50% win rate yields only 5.0 sacks and 23.6 pressures a game, with Tavius Robinson (1.4 sacks, 6.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Browns — a 49% win rate, 5.0 sacks and 22.1 pressures a game (Jared Verse (2.4 sacks, 6.0 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Expect the Ravens to feed Zay Flowers: 5.9 catches for 57 yds a game, open 61% of the time.
  • The Browns lean on Jerry Jeudy, good for 2.6 catches and 17 yds a game while breaking open on 37% of his routes.
  • Chidobe Awuzie (Ravens) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 32% of routes, adding 0.8 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Ravens lean on Derrick Henry, 15 carries for 68 yds a game at 4.5 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side.
  • The Browns hand it to Quinshon Judkins early and often, 14 carries for 43 yds a game at 3.1 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim lineBLT -8.5
Market lineBLT -9.5
Sim total33
Market total43.5
BLT by 8.5 (72% to win) Projected total 33 pts Lamar Jackson ~180 pass yds (250+ 6%) Derrick Henry ~68 rush yds (70+ 44%) Zay Flowers ~63 rec yds, 4.4 rec (70+ 32%)