CLV @ BLT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 16 slate
CLV Browns
11
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CLV12%11
BLT88%24
24
BLT Ravens

Projected Team Stats

CLV
BLT
12% Win Probability 88%
210 Total Yards 328
163 Passing Yards 190
47 Rushing Yards 138
2.2 Sacks 2.8
1.4 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson184 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins22 rush yds
REC Denzel Boston4.6 rec, 69 yds, 0.1 TD
REC KC Concepcion3.5 rec, 35 yds
BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson194 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry68 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.8 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.6 rec, 37 yds, 0.1 TD

Ravens by 12.3

Run it 50 times and Ravens win 88% of them, by 12.3 on average (24-11).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Kyle Hamilton, holding him to 2.0 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Maliek Collins (Browns) vs Cam Jurgens (Ravens) - winner: Maliek Collins, winning 56% of reps for 0.9 sacks and 4.5 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs Denzel Ward (Browns) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 59% of routes for 5.6/7.4, 59 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Ravens — a 48% win rate, 4.9 sacks and 22.4 pressures a game, and Trenton Simpson (2.0 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Ravens' quarterback should have time; the Browns win just 52% of reps for 4.7 sacks a game, with Jared Verse (1.9 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Zay Flowers headlines the Ravens' receiving corps — 5.6 catches for 59 yds a game on 59% separation.
  • The Browns' aerial attack runs through Denzel Boston (41 yds a game, open on 52% of routes).
  • Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 37% of routes with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Ravens hand it to Derrick Henry early and often, 17 carries for 68 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge.
  • Quinshon Judkins is the workhorse for the Browns, churning 22 yds a game at 2.0 a carry against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

BLT by 12.3 (88% to win) Projected total 35 pts Lamar Jackson ~194 pass yds (250+ 18%) Derrick Henry ~68 rush yds (70+ 44%) Zay Flowers ~71 rec yds, 4.8 rec (70+ 46%)