CLV @ CIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
CLV Browns
13
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CLV14%13
CIN86%28
28
CIN Bengals
BET VALUE
Lean CIN -7.5 +7.4 pts
MARKET CIN -7.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

CLV
CIN
14% Win Probability 86%
262 Total Yards 360
172 Passing Yards 295
90 Rushing Yards 64
2.1 Sacks 3.5
1.6 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson196 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins57 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Denzel Boston4.0 rec, 51 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jerry Jeudy4.1 rec, 49 yds, 0.2 TD
CIN
PASS Joe Burrow285 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Chase Brown39 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.4 rec, 92 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Tee Higgins4.8 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD

Bengals by 14.9

The sim sides with Bengals: a 14.9-point edge and a 86% win rate over 50 runs (28-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs DJ Turner II (Bengals) - winner: DJ Turner II, holding him to 22 yds on just 35% open, 0.9 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs Tyson Campbell (Browns) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 64% of routes for 10.0/11.8, 85 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
  • Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs Denzel Ward (Browns) - winner: Tee Higgins, open on 60% of routes for 5.8/6.8, 57 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Bengals — a 50% win rate, 6.2 sacks and 28.6 pressures a game, and Myles Murphy (2.2 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Bengals' quarterback should have time; the Browns win just 51% of reps for 4.0 sacks a game, Jared Verse (1.4 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • The Bengals will live and die with Ja'Marr Chase, who comes open 64% of the time (85 yds a game).
  • The Browns will live and die with Jerry Jeudy, who comes open 35% of the time (22 yds a game).
  • DJ Turner II (Bengals) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 32% of routes, adding 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bengals hand it to Chase Brown early and often, 10 carries for 39 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, finding room off right tackle.
  • The Browns hand it to Quinshon Judkins early and often, 14 carries for 57 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, finding room to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCIN -14.9
Market lineCIN -7.5
Sim total40
Market total43.5
CIN by 14.9 (86% to win) Projected total 40 pts Joe Burrow ~285 pass yds (250+ 70%) Quinshon Judkins ~57 rush yds (70+ 20%) Ja'Marr Chase ~92 rec yds, 7.4 rec (70+ 66%)