CLV @ JAX Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CLV Browns
12
PROJECTION
Week 1 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CLV10%12
JAX90%22
22
JAX Jaguars
BET VALUE
MARKET JAX -7.5 · O/U 40.5

Projected Team Stats

CLV
JAX
10% Win Probability 90%
226 Total Yards 303
141 Passing Yards 214
85 Rushing Yards 90
2.0 Sacks 3.2
1.4 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson165 pass yds, 0.4 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins51 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Denzel Boston3.4 rec, 42 yds
REC Jerry Jeudy3.4 rec, 37 yds
JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence214 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten39 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr.4.1 rec, 58 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jakobi Meyers3.3 rec, 42 yds, 0.3 TD

Jaguars by 10.9

Across 50 simulations, Jaguars come out on top 90% of the time by an average of 10.9 (22-12).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Montaric Brown (Jaguars) - winner: Montaric Brown, holding him to 18 yds on just 35% open, 0.8 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
  • Maliek Collins (Browns) vs Robert Hainsey (Jaguars) - winner: Maliek Collins, winning 55% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 4.2 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Jaguars — a 50% win rate yields only 6.0 sacks and 25.1 pressures a game, Josh Hines-Allen (3.9 sacks, 9.0 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Jaguars' line should hold up: the Browns win just 50% of their reps, mustering 4.3 sacks and 23.1 pressures a game (Jared Verse (1.7 sacks, 6.7 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Jaguars lean on Brian Thomas Jr., good for 5.4 catches and 41 yds a game while breaking open on 49% of his routes.
  • Through the air it is Harold Fannin Jr.'s show for the Browns: 18 yds a game, open on 46% of routes.
  • Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 32% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jaguars lean on Bhayshul Tuten, 11 carries for 39 yds a game at 3.4 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.
  • Expect a steady diet of Quinshon Judkins: 51 yds a game at 3.7 a carry for the Browns, finding room off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineJAX -10.9
Market lineJAX -7.5
Sim total34
Market total40.5
JAX by 10.9 (90% to win) Projected total 34 pts Trevor Lawrence ~214 pass yds (250+ 20%) Quinshon Judkins ~51 rush yds (70+ 18%) Brian Thomas Jr. ~58 rec yds, 4.1 rec (70+ 28%)