CLV @ NO Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 9 slate
CLV Browns
13
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CLV20%13
NO80%22
22
NO Saints
BET VALUE
Lean NO -3.5 +6.0 pts
MARKET NO -3.5 · O/U 41.5

Projected Team Stats

CLV
NO
20% Win Probability 80%
242 Total Yards 344
155 Passing Yards 268
87 Rushing Yards 77
1.4 Sacks 3.8
1.0 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson184 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins53 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Denzel Boston3.3 rec, 44 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jerry Jeudy3.6 rec, 43 yds, 0.1 TD
NO
PASS Tyler Shough263 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.44 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Chris Olave7.1 rec, 100 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Jordyn Tyson4.8 rec, 62 yds, 0.4 TD

Saints by 9.5

Saints are the pick here, favoured by 9.5 and winning 80% of 50 sims (projected 22-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) - winner: Kool-Aid McKinstry, holding him to 19 yds on just 38% open, 0.9 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
  • Chris Olave (Saints) vs Tyson Campbell (Browns) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 59% of routes for 8.9/11.1, 86 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Saints get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.9 sacks a game), Chase Young (3.6 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Browns may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 2.8 sacks a game (Jared Verse (0.9 sacks, 6.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Chris Olave is the engine of the Saints' passing game — 86 yds a game on 59% separation.
  • KC Concepcion is the engine of the Browns' passing game — 20 yds a game on 55% separation.
  • On the back end, Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 37% of routes — and 0.8 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Saints lean on Travis Etienne Jr., 11 carries for 44 yds a game at 4.1 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.
  • Expect a steady diet of Quinshon Judkins: 53 yds a game at 3.9 a carry for the Browns, finding room off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNO -9.5
Market lineNO -3.5
Sim total35
Market total41.5
NO by 9.5 (80% to win) Projected total 35 pts Tyler Shough ~263 pass yds (250+ 66%) Quinshon Judkins ~53 rush yds (70+ 16%) Chris Olave ~100 rec yds, 7.1 rec (70+ 76%)