CLV @ NYG Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 15 slate
CLV Browns
15
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CLV42%15
NYG58%16
16
NYG Giants

Projected Team Stats

CLV
NYG
42% Win Probability 58%
274 Total Yards 275
192 Passing Yards 225
82 Rushing Yards 50
1.4 Sacks 3.6
1.2 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson216 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins35 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Denzel Boston5.9 rec, 89 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Harold Fannin Jr.3.4 rec, 37 yds, 0.2 TD
NYG
PASS Jameis Winston228 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo28 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Malik Nabers5.3 rec, 72 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Darnell Mooney3.4 rec, 43 yds, 0.2 TD

Giants by 0.8

The model leans Giants by 0.8, winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 16-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Abdul Carter (Giants) vs Spencer Fano (Browns) - winner: Abdul Carter, winning 55% of reps for 4.1 sacks and 9.0 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Myles Harden (Browns) - winner: Myles Harden, holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Micah McFadden (Giants) - winner: Micah McFadden, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Giants — a 51% win rate, 7.0 sacks and 28.2 pressures a game — Abdul Carter (4.1 sacks, 9.0 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Giants' quarterback should have time; the Browns win just 50% of reps for 2.9 sacks a game, with Jared Verse (0.5 sacks, 4.6 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Giants to feed Malik Nabers: 7.0 catches for 59 yds a game, open 50% of the time.
  • The Browns will live and die with Denzel Boston, who comes open 56% of the time (57 yds a game).
  • Tyson Campbell (Browns) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 43% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Giants lean on Cam Skattebo, 13 carries for 28 yds a game at 2.1 a carry.
  • The Browns' run game leans on Quinshon Judkins — 12 carries, 35 yds a game (3.0 a carry), churning off right tackle into a stout front.

Model vs Market

NYG by 0.8 (58% to win) Projected total 31 pts Jameis Winston ~228 pass yds (250+ 30%) Denzel Boston ~89 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 68%)