CLV @ NYJ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CLV Browns
11
PROJECTION
Week 5 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CLV24%11
NYJ76%20
20
NYJ Jets
BET VALUE
Lean NYJ -1.5 +7.5 pts
MARKET NYJ -1.5 · O/U 39.5

Projected Team Stats

CLV
NYJ
24% Win Probability 76%
209 Total Yards 284
146 Passing Yards 179
63 Rushing Yards 105
2.1 Sacks 3.1
1.1 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson169 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins39 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Denzel Boston3.1 rec, 48 yds
REC Jerry Jeudy3.2 rec, 39 yds, 0.1 TD
NYJ
PASS Geno Smith185 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Breece Hall68 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.5 rec, 65 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Kenyon Sadiq2.6 rec, 30 yds, 0.3 TD

Jets by 9.0

The sim sides with Jets: a 9.0-point edge and a 76% win rate over 50 runs (20-11).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Mykal Walker (Jets) - winner: Mykal Walker, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Nahshon Wright (Jets) - winner: Nahshon Wright, holding him to 22 yds on just 38% open, 0.4 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • Breece Hall (Jets) vs Ronnie Hickman Jr. (Browns) - winner: Breece Hall, 4.7 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Jets — a 50% win rate, 5.2 sacks and 22.6 pressures a game, and David Bailey (2.8 sacks, 6.3 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Browns — a 51% win rate yields only 3.5 sacks and 15.8 pressures a game, led by Jared Verse (1.3 sacks, 5.8 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Garrett Wilson is the go-to for the Jets, separating on 54% of routes for 50 yds a game.
  • The Browns lean on Jerry Jeudy, good for 2.7 catches and 22 yds a game while breaking open on 38% of his routes.
  • In coverage, D'Angelo Ponds (Jets) travels and erases — only 35% separation allowed, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Breece Hall is the workhorse for the Jets, churning 68 yds a game at 4.7 a carry, with his best work to the right side and controlling the clock.
  • The Browns' run game leans on Quinshon Judkins — 13 carries, 39 yds a game (2.9 a carry) into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNYJ -9.0
Market lineNYJ -1.5
Sim total31
Market total39.5
NYJ by 9.0 (76% to win) Projected total 31 pts Geno Smith ~185 pass yds (250+ 2%) Breece Hall ~68 rush yds (70+ 42%) Garrett Wilson ~65 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 40%)