CLV @ PIT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CLV Browns
11
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CLV12%11
PIT88%20
20
PIT Steelers
BET VALUE
MARKET PIT -5.5 · O/U 39.5

Projected Team Stats

CLV
PIT
12% Win Probability 88%
205 Total Yards 312
140 Passing Yards 228
65 Rushing Yards 84
1.6 Sacks 3.2
0.9 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson163 pass yds, 0.5 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins39 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Denzel Boston3.1 rec, 40 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Jerry Jeudy3.0 rec, 35 yds, 0.1 TD
PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers228 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren55 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.1 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Germie Bernard4.3 rec, 49 yds, 0.3 TD

Steelers by 8.5

Run it 50 times and Steelers win 88% of them, by 8.5 on average (20-11).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Joey Porter Jr. (Steelers) - winner: Joey Porter Jr., holding him to 15 yds on just 33% open, 0.6 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Jalen Ramsey (Steelers) - winner: Jalen Ramsey, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Maliek Collins (Browns) vs Zach Frazier (Steelers) - winner: Maliek Collins, winning 55% of reps for 2.1 sacks and 0.0 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
In the Trenches
  • The Steelers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 5.7 sacks a game — T.J. Watt (2.0 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Browns get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (3.2 sacks a game), Jared Verse (0.5 sacks, 4.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Look for D.K. Metcalf to eat: 6.1 catches and 50 yds a game for the Steelers.
  • Harold Fannin Jr. is the engine of the Browns' passing game — 19 yds a game on 59% separation.
  • Joey Porter Jr. (Steelers) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 31% of routes — and 0.6 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Jaylen Warren sets the tempo for the Steelers — 55 yds a game on the ground at 4.5 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge.
  • The Browns lean on Quinshon Judkins, 13 carries for 39 yds a game at 3.0 a carry.

Model vs Market

Sim linePIT -8.5
Market linePIT -5.5
Sim total31
Market total39.5
PIT by 8.5 (88% to win) Projected total 31 pts Aaron Rodgers ~228 pass yds (250+ 36%) Jaylen Warren ~55 rush yds (70+ 16%) D.K. Metcalf ~68 rec yds, 5.1 rec (70+ 42%)