CLV @ TB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CLV Browns
14
PROJECTION
Week 2 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CLV34%14
TB66%18
18
TB Buccaneers
BET VALUE
MARKET TB -5.5 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

CLV
TB
34% Win Probability 66%
252 Total Yards 282
154 Passing Yards 197
98 Rushing Yards 85
1.9 Sacks 3.1
1.1 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson177 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins58 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jerry Jeudy3.9 rec, 45 yds
REC Denzel Boston3.2 rec, 44 yds, 0.1 TD
TB
PASS Baker Mayfield207 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving30 rush yds
REC Chris Godwin4.5 rec, 58 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka2.9 rec, 39 yds, 0.3 TD

Buccaneers by 4.2

The model leans Buccaneers by 4.2, winning 66% of 50 sims (projected 18-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Jacob Parrish, holding him to 24 yds on just 38% open, 0.6 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Ronnie Hickman Jr. (Browns) - winner: Ronnie Hickman Jr., holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Maliek Collins (Browns) vs Graham Barton (Buccaneers) - winner: Maliek Collins, winning 56% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 4.3 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Buccaneers — a 50% win rate, 5.0 sacks and 23.7 pressures a game — Elijah Roberts (1.7 sacks, 6.3 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Browns get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.1 sacks a game), led by Jared Verse (1.6 sacks, 6.8 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Look for Chris Godwin to eat: 5.8 catches and 46 yds a game for the Buccaneers.
  • Look for Jerry Jeudy to eat: 3.3 catches and 24 yds a game for the Browns.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Ronnie Hickman Jr. (Browns): 35% separation allowed with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Buccaneers lean on Bucky Irving, 11 carries for 30 yds a game at 2.6 a carry.
  • Expect a steady diet of Quinshon Judkins: 58 yds a game at 4.3 a carry for the Browns, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineTB -4.2
Market lineTB -5.5
Sim total33
Market total42.5
TB by 4.2 (66% to win) Projected total 33 pts Baker Mayfield ~207 pass yds (250+ 24%) Quinshon Judkins ~58 rush yds (70+ 24%) Chris Godwin ~58 rec yds, 4.5 rec (70+ 32%)