CLV @ TEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CLV Browns
17
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
CLV56%17
TEN44%16
16
TEN Titans
BET VALUE
MARKET TEN -2.5 · O/U 40.5

Projected Team Stats

CLV
TEN
56% Win Probability 44%
275 Total Yards 265
172 Passing Yards 198
103 Rushing Yards 68
3.8 Sacks 2.9
1.1 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson190 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins67 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Denzel Boston3.8 rec, 51 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jerry Jeudy3.7 rec, 45 yds, 0.1 TD
TEN
PASS Cam Ward225 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard38 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Carnell Tate4.3 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson3.8 rec, 46 yds, 0.3 TD

Browns by 1.0

Across 50 simulations, Browns come out on top 56% of the time by an average of 1.0 (17-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Cor'Dale Flott (Titans) - winner: Cor'Dale Flott, holding him to 23 yds on just 35% open, 0.7 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Maliek Collins (Browns) vs Austin Schlottmann (Titans) - winner: Maliek Collins, winning 57% of reps for 1.0 sacks and 5.8 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Elgton Jenkins (Browns) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 56% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 4.8 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Kevin Winston Jr. (Titans) - winner: Quinshon Judkins, 4.7 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Carnell Tate (Titans) vs Tyson Campbell (Browns) - winner: Carnell Tate, open on 62% of routes for 5.8/7.4, 59 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Browns may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 7.2 sacks a game — Jared Verse (3.2 sacks, 9.8 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Titans — a 50% win rate yields only 5.0 sacks and 26.8 pressures a game, John Franklin-Myers (1.9 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Jerry Jeudy is the engine of the Browns' passing game — 23 yds a game on 35% separation.
  • The Titans' aerial attack runs through Carnell Tate (59 yds a game, open on 62% of routes).
  • Cor'Dale Flott (Titans) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 37% of routes with 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Browns ride Quinshon Judkins: 14 carries, 67 yds a game (4.7 a carry), with his best work to the right side and controlling the clock.
  • The Titans lean on Tony Pollard, 9 carries for 38 yds a game at 4.1 a carry, finding room off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCLV -1.0
Market lineTEN -2.5
Sim total34
Market total40.5
CLV by 1.0 (56% to win) Projected total 34 pts Cam Ward ~225 pass yds (250+ 30%) Quinshon Judkins ~67 rush yds (70+ 38%) Carnell Tate ~68 rec yds, 4.3 rec (70+ 48%)