DAL @ GB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DAL Cowboys
22
PROJECTION
Week 6 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DAL42%22
GB58%23
23
GB Packers
BET VALUE
MARKET GB -3 · O/U 51.5

Projected Team Stats

DAL
GB
42% Win Probability 58%
372 Total Yards 329
251 Passing Yards 261
121 Rushing Yards 69
2.2 Sacks 3.0
1.4 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

DAL
PASS Dak Prescott265 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams64 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC George Pickens5.4 rec, 75 yds, 0.3 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.3 rec, 70 yds, 0.5 TD
GB
PASS Jordan Love272 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs45 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Christian Watson5.3 rec, 89 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jayden Reed3.7 rec, 48 yds, 0.1 TD

Packers by 0.6

Run it 50 times and Packers win 58% of them, by 0.6 on average (23-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 56% of reps for 4.3 sacks and 10.5 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) - winner: Jalen Thompson, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Kenny Clark (Cowboys) vs Sean Rhyan (Packers) - winner: Kenny Clark, winning 56% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 2.9 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Christian Watson (Packers) vs Cobie Durant (Cowboys) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 60% of routes for 7.3/8.6, 81 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • The Cowboys' line should hold up: the Packers win just 52% of their reps, mustering 6.3 sacks and 25.4 pressures a game, and Micah Parsons (4.3 sacks, 10.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Packers' line should hold up: the Cowboys win just 52% of their reps, mustering 3.9 sacks and 19.9 pressures a game (Rashan Gary (0.9 sacks, 5.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Packers will live and die with Christian Watson, who comes open 60% of the time (81 yds a game).
  • CeeDee Lamb is the engine of the Cowboys' passing game — 55 yds a game on 56% separation.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Edgerrin Cooper (Packers): 37% separation allowed with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Packers lean on Josh Jacobs, 15 carries for 45 yds a game at 2.9 a carry.
  • The Cowboys hand it to Javonte Williams early and often, 14 carries for 64 yds a game at 4.6 a carry, churning to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineGB -0.6
Market lineGB -3
Sim total45
Market total51.5
GB by 0.6 (58% to win) Projected total 45 pts Jordan Love ~272 pass yds (250+ 58%) Javonte Williams ~64 rush yds (70+ 38%) Christian Watson ~89 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 64%)