DAL @ HST Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DAL Cowboys
23
PROJECTION
DAL 34 – HST 30
Week 4 50-sim average Sun 4 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
DAL50%23 34
HST50%24 30
24
HST Texans
✗ RESULT DAL by 4 model HST by 1.6, off by 5.6
✓ SPREAD DAL +2.5 WIN line at publish HST -2.5
• TOTAL 64 pts OVER O/U 47.5, model 47

Projected Team Stats

DAL
HST
50% Win Probability 50%
348 Total Yards 375
258 Passing Yards 302
90 Rushing Yards 73
2.2 Sacks 3.2
1.2 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

DAL
PASS Dak Prescott278 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams51 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb6.0 rec, 86 yds, 0.5 TD
REC George Pickens3.7 rec, 51 yds, 0.3 TD
HST
PASS C.J. Stroud306 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH David Montgomery40 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Nico Collins7.0 rec, 103 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Xavier Hutchinson3.9 rec, 51 yds, 0.2 TD

Texans by 1.6

Across 50 simulations, Texans come out on top 50% of the time by an average of 1.6 (24-23).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 57% of reps for 3.8 sacks and 10.6 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • David Montgomery (Texans) vs Markquese Bell (Cowboys) - winner: Markquese Bell, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Nico Collins (Texans) vs DaRon Bland (Cowboys) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 60% of routes for 9.0/11.4, 87 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Cowboys' line should hold up: the Texans win just 52% of their reps, mustering 5.9 sacks and 25.2 pressures a game (Will Anderson Jr. (3.8 sacks, 10.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Cowboys may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 4.7 sacks a game — Donovan Ezeiruaku (1.4 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Nico Collins is the go-to for the Texans, separating on 60% of routes for 87 yds a game.
  • Look for CeeDee Lamb to eat: 6.7 catches and 63 yds a game for the Cowboys.
  • Jalen Pitre (Texans) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 34% of routes — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Texans lean on David Montgomery, 13 carries for 40 yds a game at 3.0 a carry.
  • The Cowboys hand it to Javonte Williams early and often, 12 carries for 51 yds a game at 4.1 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineHST -1.6
Market lineHST -2.5
Sim total47
Market total47.5
HST by 1.6 (50% to win) Projected total 47 pts C.J. Stroud ~306 pass yds (250+ 90%) Javonte Williams ~51 rush yds (70+ 26%) Nico Collins ~103 rec yds, 7.0 rec (70+ 86%)