DAL @ HST Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DAL Cowboys
23
PROJECTION
Week 4 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DAL50%23
HST50%25
25
HST Texans
BET VALUE
MARKET HST -2.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

DAL
HST
50% Win Probability 50%
344 Total Yards 364
234 Passing Yards 267
110 Rushing Yards 97
2.3 Sacks 3.7
1.4 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

DAL
PASS Dak Prescott254 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams57 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.3 rec, 68 yds, 0.3 TD
REC George Pickens4.5 rec, 61 yds, 0.5 TD
HST
PASS C.J. Stroud270 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH David Montgomery55 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Nico Collins5.9 rec, 85 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jayden Higgins3.8 rec, 53 yds, 0.4 TD

Texans by 1.7

Across 50 simulations, Texans come out on top 50% of the time by an average of 1.7 (25-23).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 58% of reps for 4.9 sacks and 12.0 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Nico Collins (Texans) vs Cobie Durant (Cowboys) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 59% of routes for 7.7/9.6, 72 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Cowboys' line should hold up: the Texans win just 52% of their reps, mustering 7.6 sacks and 27.8 pressures a game — Will Anderson Jr. (4.9 sacks, 12.0 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Texans' line should hold up: the Cowboys win just 51% of their reps, mustering 4.7 sacks and 23.1 pressures a game, and Rashan Gary (1.2 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Texans to feed Nico Collins: 7.7 catches for 72 yds a game, open 59% of the time.
  • CeeDee Lamb should find soft spots all day, open 46% of the time for 53 yds a game.
  • In coverage, Jalen Pitre (Texans) travels and erases — only 28% separation allowed with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • David Montgomery carries the load for the Texans, 14 carries for 55 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.
  • The Cowboys lean on Javonte Williams, 13 carries for 57 yds a game at 4.5 a carry, churning off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineHST -1.7
Market lineHST -2.5
Sim total48
Market total47.5
HST by 1.7 (50% to win) Projected total 48 pts C.J. Stroud ~270 pass yds (250+ 56%) Javonte Williams ~57 rush yds (70+ 28%) Nico Collins ~85 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 66%)