DAL @ IND Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 9 slate
DAL Cowboys
22
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DAL42%22
IND58%26
26
IND Colts
BET VALUE
MARKET DAL -1.5 · O/U 52.5

Projected Team Stats

DAL
IND
42% Win Probability 58%
356 Total Yards 404
247 Passing Yards 280
109 Rushing Yards 125
1.8 Sacks 2.5
1.3 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

DAL
PASS Dak Prescott256 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams58 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.6 rec, 78 yds, 0.6 TD
REC George Pickens4.9 rec, 70 yds, 0.4 TD
IND
PASS Daniel Jones273 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor85 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Alec Pierce6.0 rec, 96 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Tyler Warren5.6 rec, 61 yds, 0.5 TD

Colts by 3.5

The sim sides with Colts: a 3.5-point edge and a 58% win rate over 50 runs (26-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Laiatu Latu (Colts) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Laiatu Latu, winning 56% of reps for 3.7 sacks and 8.8 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.5 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Jaylon Carlies (Colts) - winner: Javonte Williams, 5.1 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (5.8 sacks a game), Laiatu Latu (3.7 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Cowboys — a 48% win rate yields only 3.9 sacks and 15.2 pressures a game, with Rashan Gary (0.9 sacks, 5.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Colts' aerial attack runs through Alec Pierce (82 yds a game, open on 57% of routes).
  • CeeDee Lamb is the go-to for the Cowboys, separating on 47% of routes for 55 yds a game.
  • Few balls get past Camryn Bynum (Colts), who yields separation on 43% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jonathan Taylor carries the load for the Colts, 15 carries for 85 yds a game at 5.5 a carry, with his best work to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Javonte Williams sets the tempo for the Cowboys — 58 yds a game on the ground at 5.1 a carry, churning to the right side and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

Sim lineIND -3.5
Market lineDAL -1.5
Sim total48
Market total52.5
IND by 3.5 (58% to win) Projected total 48 pts Daniel Jones ~273 pass yds (250+ 64%) Jonathan Taylor ~85 rush yds (70+ 64%) Alec Pierce ~96 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 66%)