DAL @ LA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DAL Cowboys
18
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
DAL16%18
LA84%29
29
LA Rams

Projected Team Stats

DAL
LA
16% Win Probability 84%
327 Total Yards 441
252 Passing Yards 315
75 Rushing Yards 126
2.0 Sacks 2.8
1.5 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

DAL
PASS Dak Prescott273 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams44 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb6.2 rec, 81 yds, 0.4 TD
REC George Pickens4.6 rec, 60 yds, 0.3 TD
LA
PASS Matthew Stafford307 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams74 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.8 rec, 99 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Davante Adams5.5 rec, 78 yds, 0.4 TD

Rams by 11.2

The model leans Rams by 11.2, winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 29-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Caleb Downs (Cowboys) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.0 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Joey Porter Jr. (Cowboys) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 62% of routes for 10.4/12.6, 89 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
  • Davante Adams (Rams) vs DaRon Bland (Cowboys) - winner: Davante Adams, open on 62% of routes for 6.8/8.9, 58 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • The Rams get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (5.4 sacks a game), led by Byron Young (1.9 sacks, 8.9 pressures a game).
  • The Rams' quarterback should have time; the Cowboys win just 50% of reps for 4.3 sacks a game, led by Rashan Gary (3.4 sacks, 6.6 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Puka Nacua is the engine of the Rams' passing game — 89 yds a game on 62% separation.
  • The Cowboys lean on CeeDee Lamb, good for 7.1 catches and 57 yds a game while breaking open on 49% of his routes.
  • On the back end, Quentin Lake (Rams) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 37% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kyren Williams sets the tempo for the Rams — 74 yds a game on the ground at 5.0 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • On the ground, the Cowboys ride Javonte Williams: 12 carries, 44 yds a game (3.8 a carry), with his best work off the right edge.

Model vs Market

LA by 11.2 (84% to win) Projected total 48 pts Matthew Stafford ~307 pass yds (250+ 78%) Kyren Williams ~74 rush yds (70+ 58%) Puka Nacua ~99 rec yds, 7.8 rec (70+ 82%)