DAL @ LA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 15 slate
DAL Cowboys
21
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DAL30%21
LA70%31
31
LA Rams
BET VALUE
MARKET LA -5.5 · O/U 52.5

Projected Team Stats

DAL
LA
30% Win Probability 70%
336 Total Yards 444
239 Passing Yards 316
97 Rushing Yards 129
2.2 Sacks 3.4
1.2 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

DAL
PASS Dak Prescott259 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams58 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb6.2 rec, 79 yds, 0.4 TD
REC George Pickens4.5 rec, 61 yds, 0.4 TD
LA
PASS Matthew Stafford305 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams78 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.9 rec, 104 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Davante Adams5.2 rec, 83 yds, 0.5 TD

Rams by 10.1

The sim sides with Rams: a 10.1-point edge and a 70% win rate over 50 runs (31-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Myles Garrett (Rams) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Myles Garrett, winning 56% of reps for 4.4 sacks and 10.7 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.8 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Cobie Durant (Cowboys) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 63% of routes for 11.1/12.7, 99 yds a game - money in this spot.
  • Kenny Clark (Cowboys) vs Coleman Shelton (Rams) - winner: Kenny Clark, winning 55% of reps for 2.3 sacks and 1.7 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Davante Adams (Rams) vs DaRon Bland (Cowboys) - winner: Davante Adams, open on 61% of routes for 6.1/7.9, 56 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Rams get stonewalled often up front, winning only 53% of reps (6.7 sacks a game), with Myles Garrett (4.4 sacks, 10.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Cowboys — a 50% win rate yields only 4.4 sacks and 17.3 pressures a game, led by Rashan Gary (0.8 sacks, 5.9 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Puka Nacua headlines the Rams' receiving corps — 11.1 catches for 99 yds a game on 63% separation.
  • CeeDee Lamb is the go-to for the Cowboys, separating on 50% of routes for 58 yds a game.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Kamren Kinchens (Rams): 37% separation allowed, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Rams hand it to Kyren Williams early and often, 16 carries for 78 yds a game at 4.8 a carry, with his best work off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Expect a steady diet of Javonte Williams: 58 yds a game at 4.3 a carry for the Cowboys, finding room off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -10.1
Market lineLA -5.5
Sim total52
Market total52.5
LA by 10.1 (70% to win) Projected total 52 pts Matthew Stafford ~305 pass yds (250+ 80%) Kyren Williams ~78 rush yds (70+ 60%) Puka Nacua ~104 rec yds, 7.9 rec (70+ 90%)