DAL @ NYG Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DAL Cowboys
25
PROJECTION
Week 1 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DAL80%25
NYG20%16
16
NYG Giants
BET VALUE
Lean DAL -2.5 +6.2 pts
MARKET DAL -2.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

DAL
NYG
80% Win Probability 20%
375 Total Yards 295
261 Passing Yards 218
114 Rushing Yards 77
2.4 Sacks 2.4
1.0 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

DAL
PASS Dak Prescott259 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams61 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.8 rec, 88 yds, 0.6 TD
REC George Pickens4.7 rec, 65 yds, 0.4 TD
NYG
PASS Jaxson Dart236 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo43 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Malik Nabers6.0 rec, 90 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Darius Slayton2.8 rec, 36 yds, 0.1 TD

Cowboys by 8.7

Run it 50 times and Cowboys win 80% of them, by 8.7 on average (25-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Brian Burns (Giants) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Brian Burns, winning 56% of reps for 2.6 sacks and 8.9 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) - winner: Jalen Thompson, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Ar'Darius Washington (Giants) - winner: Javonte Williams, 4.8 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Abdul Carter (Giants) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Abdul Carter, winning 56% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 3.6 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Paulson Adebo (Giants) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 60% of routes for 6.5/9.6, 67 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • The Cowboys get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.9 sacks a game), Rashan Gary (1.6 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Giants — a 52% win rate yields only 5.1 sacks and 22.4 pressures a game, led by Brian Burns (2.6 sacks, 8.9 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • CeeDee Lamb is the go-to for the Cowboys, separating on 60% of routes for 67 yds a game.
  • Look for Malik Nabers to eat: 6.6 catches and 66 yds a game for the Giants.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Ar'Darius Washington (Giants): 39% separation allowed — and 0.0 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Cowboys' run game leans on Javonte Williams — 13 carries, 61 yds a game (4.8 a carry), with the holes opening off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • Cam Skattebo sets the tempo for the Giants — 43 yds a game on the ground at 3.1 a carry into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDAL -8.7
Market lineDAL -2.5
Sim total41
Market total48.5
DAL by 8.7 (80% to win) Projected total 41 pts Dak Prescott ~259 pass yds (250+ 58%) Javonte Williams ~61 rush yds (70+ 26%) Malik Nabers ~90 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 70%)