DAL @ PHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DAL Cowboys
23
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
DAL70%23
PHI30%20
20
PHI Eagles

Projected Team Stats

DAL
PHI
70% Win Probability 30%
342 Total Yards 335
248 Passing Yards 239
93 Rushing Yards 96
2.9 Sacks 2.9
0.9 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

DAL
PASS Dak Prescott265 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams55 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb6.3 rec, 81 yds, 0.3 TD
REC George Pickens4.5 rec, 62 yds, 0.4 TD
PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts256 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley49 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC DeVonta Smith5.8 rec, 84 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Dontayvion Wicks3.1 rec, 43 yds, 0.2 TD

Cowboys by 3.7

Cowboys are the pick here, favoured by 3.7 and winning 70% of 50 sims (projected 23-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jonathan Greenard (Eagles) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Jonathan Greenard, winning 56% of reps for 3.9 sacks and 9.3 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Cowboys — a 49% win rate, 5.9 sacks and 29.2 pressures a game, and Rashan Gary (3.2 sacks, 8.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Eagles — a 52% win rate yields only 5.7 sacks and 23.1 pressures a game, led by Jonathan Greenard (3.9 sacks, 9.3 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Cowboys lean on CeeDee Lamb, good for 6.9 catches and 63 yds a game while breaking open on 57% of his routes.
  • Through the air it is DeVonta Smith's show for the Eagles: 67 yds a game, open on 50% of routes.
  • Zack Baun (Eagles) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 37% of his coverage snaps, adding 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Cowboys' run game leans on Javonte Williams — 12 carries, 55 yds a game (4.5 a carry), finding room to the right side.
  • The Eagles hand it to Saquon Barkley early and often, 11 carries for 49 yds a game at 4.5 a carry, churning to the right side.

Model vs Market

DAL by 3.7 (70% to win) Projected total 43 pts Dak Prescott ~265 pass yds (250+ 58%) Javonte Williams ~55 rush yds (70+ 16%) DeVonta Smith ~84 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 62%)