DAL @ PHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DAL Cowboys
16
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DAL22%16
PHI78%25
25
PHI Eagles
BET VALUE
MARKET PHI -3 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

DAL
PHI
22% Win Probability 78%
303 Total Yards 363
204 Passing Yards 242
98 Rushing Yards 121
2.4 Sacks 2.9
1.4 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

DAL
PASS Dak Prescott224 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams53 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.3 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
REC George Pickens4.3 rec, 53 yds, 0.2 TD
PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts247 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley59 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Makai Lemon5.3 rec, 76 yds, 0.5 TD
REC DeVonta Smith5.1 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD

Eagles by 8.3

Run it 50 times and Eagles win 78% of them, by 8.3 on average (25-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jalyx Hunt (Eagles) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Jalyx Hunt, winning 56% of reps for 0.7 sacks and 3.8 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) vs Zack Baun (Eagles) - winner: Zack Baun, holding him to 17 yds on just 38% open, 0.3 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Makai Lemon (Eagles) vs Reddy Steward (Cowboys) - winner: Makai Lemon, open on 62% of routes for 6.5/7.8, 57 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Cowboys' line should hold up: the Eagles win just 53% of their reps, mustering 6.2 sacks and 26.5 pressures a game (Jonathan Greenard (2.8 sacks, 9.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Cowboys may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 4.9 sacks a game, and Rashan Gary (1.6 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Eagles to feed DeVonta Smith: 7.1 catches for 66 yds a game, open 59% of the time.
  • CeeDee Lamb is the engine of the Cowboys' passing game — 42 yds a game on 44% separation.
  • In coverage, Zack Baun (Eagles) travels and erases — only 33% separation allowed — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Saquon Barkley sets the tempo for the Eagles — 59 yds a game on the ground at 4.3 a carry, finding room to the right side.
  • On the ground, the Cowboys ride Javonte Williams: 12 carries, 53 yds a game (4.5 a carry), with his best work off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim linePHI -8.3
Market linePHI -3
Sim total41
Market total48.5
PHI by 8.3 (78% to win) Projected total 41 pts Jalen Hurts ~247 pass yds (250+ 54%) Saquon Barkley ~59 rush yds (70+ 30%) Makai Lemon ~76 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 60%)