DAL @ SEA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
DAL Cowboys
22
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DAL36%22
SEA64%27
27
SEA Seahawks
BET VALUE
MARKET SEA -4.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

DAL
SEA
36% Win Probability 64%
359 Total Yards 389
254 Passing Yards 268
105 Rushing Yards 120
1.5 Sacks 2.4
1.3 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

DAL
PASS Dak Prescott270 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams55 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb6.0 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD
REC George Pickens4.8 rec, 60 yds, 0.4 TD
SEA
PASS Sam Darnold265 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet65 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Cooper Kupp5.7 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba4.5 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD

Seahawks by 4.6

Run it 50 times and Seahawks win 64% of them, by 4.6 on average (27-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Cobie Durant (Cowboys) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 64% of routes for 6.4/7.6, 58 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Seahawks — a 51% win rate yields only 5.2 sacks and 22.4 pressures a game, Uchenna Nwosu (1.7 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Cowboys get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (3.4 sacks a game), led by Rashan Gary (0.8 sacks, 4.7 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Seahawks' aerial attack runs through Jaxon Smith-Njigba (58 yds a game, open on 64% of routes).
  • Expect the Cowboys to feed CeeDee Lamb: 6.4 catches for 50 yds a game, open 45% of the time.
  • Few balls get past Julian Love (Seahawks), who yields separation on 32% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Zach Charbonnet is the workhorse for the Seahawks, churning 65 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, churning to the right side.
  • Javonte Williams sets the tempo for the Cowboys — 55 yds a game on the ground at 4.3 a carry, churning off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -4.6
Market lineSEA -4.5
Sim total49
Market total48.5
SEA by 4.6 (64% to win) Projected total 49 pts Dak Prescott ~270 pass yds (250+ 68%) Zach Charbonnet ~65 rush yds (70+ 30%) Cooper Kupp ~77 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 50%)