DAL @ WAS Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
DAL Cowboys
27
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DAL66%27
WAS34%21
21
WAS Commanders
BET VALUE
MARKET DAL -1.5 · O/U 49.5

Projected Team Stats

DAL
WAS
66% Win Probability 34%
409 Total Yards 298
272 Passing Yards 208
137 Rushing Yards 90
2.8 Sacks 2.6
1.3 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

DAL
PASS Dak Prescott272 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams72 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.6 rec, 87 yds, 0.5 TD
REC George Pickens4.5 rec, 68 yds, 0.5 TD
WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels225 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt47 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Terry McLaurin4.8 rec, 70 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Antonio Williams3.6 rec, 42 yds, 0.2 TD

Cowboys by 6.5

Run it 50 times and Cowboys win 66% of them, by 6.5 on average (27-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Javonte Williams, 6.2 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Odafe Oweh (Commanders) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Odafe Oweh, winning 56% of reps for 3.4 sacks and 9.5 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 63% of routes for 6.7/8.9, 72 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • The Commanders' line should hold up: the Cowboys win just 49% of their reps, mustering 5.5 sacks and 25.2 pressures a game — Rashan Gary (1.9 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Commanders — a 52% win rate yields only 5.6 sacks and 21.7 pressures a game, Odafe Oweh (3.4 sacks, 9.5 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Cowboys to feed CeeDee Lamb: 6.7 catches for 72 yds a game, open 63% of the time.
  • The Commanders lean on Terry McLaurin, good for 6.2 catches and 61 yds a game while breaking open on 57% of his routes.
  • Sonny Styles (Commanders) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 42% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Cowboys lean on Javonte Williams, 12 carries for 72 yds a game at 6.2 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.
  • On the ground, the Commanders ride Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 13 carries, 47 yds a game (3.5 a carry), with his best work off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDAL -6.5
Market lineDAL -1.5
Sim total48
Market total49.5
DAL by 6.5 (66% to win) Projected total 48 pts Dak Prescott ~272 pass yds (250+ 62%) Javonte Williams ~72 rush yds (70+ 42%) CeeDee Lamb ~87 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 60%)