DEN @ ARZ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DEN Broncos
28
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DEN88%28
ARZ12%14
14
ARZ Cardinals
BET VALUE
Lean DEN -7.5 +6.5 pts
MARKET DEN -7.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

DEN
ARZ
88% Win Probability 12%
426 Total Yards 272
284 Passing Yards 191
141 Rushing Yards 81
4.8 Sacks 2.9
1.2 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

DEN
PASS Bo Nix276 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins63 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle6.8 rec, 102 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Courtland Sutton5.5 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett227 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love48 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.5.1 rec, 61 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Michael Wilson4.5 rec, 56 yds, 0.2 TD

Broncos by 14.0

Run it 50 times and Broncos win 88% of them, by 14.0 on average (28-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals) vs Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) - winner: Ja'Quan McMillian, holding him to 38 yds on just 36% open, 0.8 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
  • Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Elijah Wilkinson (Cardinals) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 55% of reps for 3.6 sacks and 7.2 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Owen Pappoe (Cardinals) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 5.7 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Talanoa Hufanga (Broncos) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 6.3 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) vs Denzel Burke (Cardinals) - winner: Jaylen Waddle, open on 64% of routes for 6.4/9.1, 66 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Broncos may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 8.9 sacks a game, and Jonathon Cooper (2.7 sacks, 10.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Cardinals get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (5.3 sacks a game), Josh Sweat (3.2 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Broncos to feed Jaylen Waddle: 6.4 catches for 66 yds a game, open 64% of the time.
  • The Cardinals lean on Marvin Harrison Jr., good for 5.7 catches and 38 yds a game while breaking open on 36% of his routes.
  • In coverage, Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) travels and erases — only 34% separation allowed, adding 0.9 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Broncos lean on J.K. Dobbins, 11 carries for 63 yds a game at 5.7 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.
  • Jeremiyah Love sets the tempo for the Cardinals — 48 yds a game on the ground at 6.3 a carry, finding room off the right edge and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDEN -14.0
Market lineDEN -7.5
Sim total43
Market total43.5
DEN by 14.0 (88% to win) Projected total 43 pts Bo Nix ~276 pass yds (250+ 68%) J.K. Dobbins ~63 rush yds (70+ 32%) Jaylen Waddle ~102 rec yds, 6.8 rec (70+ 80%)