DEN @ CAR Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DEN Broncos
22
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DEN76%22
CAR24%13
13
CAR Panthers
BET VALUE
Lean DEN -3 +5.8 pts
MARKET DEN -3 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

DEN
CAR
76% Win Probability 24%
369 Total Yards 286
228 Passing Yards 198
141 Rushing Yards 87
2.7 Sacks 2.3
1.5 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

DEN
PASS Bo Nix232 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins62 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle5.8 rec, 76 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Courtland Sutton4.6 rec, 57 yds, 0.2 TD
CAR
PASS Bryce Young217 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard44 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.7 rec, 65 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.1 rec, 45 yds, 0.2 TD

Broncos by 8.8

Run it 50 times and Broncos win 76% of them, by 8.8 on average (22-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Courtland Sutton (Broncos) vs Mike Jackson (Panthers) - winner: Mike Jackson, holding him to 36 yds on just 36% open, 0.9 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 5.8 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Riley Moss (Broncos) - winner: Riley Moss, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • The Panthers' line should hold up: the Broncos win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.6 sacks and 24.0 pressures a game (Jonathon Cooper (1.9 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Panthers — a 49% win rate yields only 5.1 sacks and 23.3 pressures a game, with Jaelan Phillips (3.1 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Jaylen Waddle's show for the Broncos: 48 yds a game, open on 62% of routes.
  • Expect the Panthers to feed Tetairoa McMillan: 6.2 catches for 45 yds a game, open 41% of the time.
  • Mike Jackson (Panthers) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 31% of routes, good for 0.9 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Broncos ride J.K. Dobbins: 11 carries, 62 yds a game (5.8 a carry), doing his damage off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • Chuba Hubbard sets the tempo for the Panthers — 44 yds a game on the ground at 3.0 a carry into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDEN -8.8
Market lineDEN -3
Sim total36
Market total42.5
DEN by 8.8 (76% to win) Projected total 36 pts Bo Nix ~232 pass yds (250+ 36%) J.K. Dobbins ~62 rush yds (70+ 32%) Jaylen Waddle ~76 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 56%)