DEN @ KC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DEN Broncos
24
PROJECTION
Week 1 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DEN62%24
KC38%19
19
KC Chiefs
BET VALUE
Lean DEN +3 +8.2 pts
MARKET KC -3 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

DEN
KC
62% Win Probability 38%
369 Total Yards 315
250 Passing Yards 178
119 Rushing Yards 137
4.2 Sacks 2.5
1.2 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

DEN
PASS Bo Nix259 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins51 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle6.1 rec, 92 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Courtland Sutton4.8 rec, 57 yds, 0.3 TD
KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes204 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III70 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Rashee Rice6.0 rec, 61 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Xavier Worthy3.6 rec, 43 yds, 0.1 TD

Broncos by 5.2

Broncos are the pick here, favoured by 5.2 and winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 24-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Taurean York (Broncos) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.2 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Ben Powers (Broncos) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 55% of reps for 1.8 sacks and 4.2 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 4.8 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) vs Kader Kohou (Chiefs) - winner: Jaylen Waddle, open on 59% of routes for 5.9/8.8, 65 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Chiefs' line should hold up: the Broncos win just 50% of their reps, mustering 8.2 sacks and 33.8 pressures a game (Jonathon Cooper (3.0 sacks, 10.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Chiefs — a 50% win rate, 5.4 sacks and 26.0 pressures a game — George Karlaftis (1.9 sacks, 8.5 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Jaylen Waddle headlines the Broncos' receiving corps — 5.9 catches for 65 yds a game on 59% separation.
  • Rashee Rice is the go-to for the Chiefs, separating on 45% of routes for 49 yds a game.
  • In coverage, Alohi Gilman (Chiefs) travels and erases — only 38% separation allowed, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • J.K. Dobbins is the workhorse for the Broncos, churning 51 yds a game at 4.8 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • The Chiefs lean on Kenneth Walker III, 13 carries for 70 yds a game at 5.2 a carry, churning off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDEN -5.2
Market lineKC -3
Sim total43
Market total43.5
DEN by 5.2 (62% to win) Projected total 43 pts Bo Nix ~259 pass yds (250+ 56%) Kenneth Walker III ~70 rush yds (70+ 38%) Jaylen Waddle ~92 rec yds, 6.1 rec (70+ 68%)