DEN @ LAC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DEN Broncos
23
PROJECTION
Week 5 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DEN58%23
LAC42%20
20
LAC Chargers
BET VALUE
Lean DEN +2.5 +6.2 pts
MARKET LAC -2.5 · O/U 44.5

Projected Team Stats

DEN
LAC
58% Win Probability 42%
378 Total Yards 319
264 Passing Yards 198
114 Rushing Yards 121
3.4 Sacks 2.6
1.6 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

DEN
PASS Bo Nix274 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins52 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle5.9 rec, 83 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Courtland Sutton5.4 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
LAC
PASS Justin Herbert218 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton57 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.9 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Quentin Johnston3.9 rec, 43 yds, 0.1 TD

Broncos by 3.7

Across 50 simulations, Broncos come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 3.7 (23-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Taurean York (Broncos) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 4.9 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Quentin Johnston (Chargers) vs Pat Surtain II (Broncos) - winner: Pat Surtain II, holding him to 25 yds on just 36% open, 0.3 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Tony Jefferson (Chargers) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 4.8 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) vs Cam Hart (Chargers) - winner: Jaylen Waddle, open on 61% of routes for 5.8/8.2, 51 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Chargers' quarterback should have time; the Broncos win just 51% of reps for 6.2 sacks a game, led by Jonathon Cooper (2.0 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Chargers — a 49% win rate, 4.9 sacks and 20.6 pressures a game — Tuli Tuipulotu (3.3 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Jaylen Waddle is the engine of the Broncos' passing game — 51 yds a game on 61% separation.
  • Ladd McConkey headlines the Chargers' receiving corps — 7.1 catches for 45 yds a game on 48% separation.
  • Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 34% of routes with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Broncos' run game leans on J.K. Dobbins — 11 carries, 52 yds a game (4.8 a carry), churning off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • On the ground, the Chargers ride Omarion Hampton: 12 carries, 57 yds a game (4.9 a carry), with the holes opening off the right edge and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDEN -3.7
Market lineLAC -2.5
Sim total43
Market total44.5
DEN by 3.7 (58% to win) Projected total 43 pts Bo Nix ~274 pass yds (250+ 60%) Omarion Hampton ~57 rush yds (70+ 20%) Jaylen Waddle ~83 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 58%)