DEN @ LAC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DEN Broncos
16
PROJECTION
DEN 23 – LAC 17
Week 5 50-sim average Sun 11 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
DEN50%16 23
LAC50%19 17
19
LAC Chargers
✗ RESULT DEN by 6 model LAC by 2.8, off by 8.8
✗ VALUE LAC +3.5 LOSS line at publish DEN -3.5
✓ TOTAL 40 pts UNDER O/U 42.5, model 34 lean under

Projected Team Stats

DEN
LAC
50% Win Probability 50%
281 Total Yards 328
197 Passing Yards 210
84 Rushing Yards 118
3.0 Sacks 2.8
1.6 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

DEN
PASS Bo Nix218 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins39 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle6.2 rec, 78 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Courtland Sutton3.4 rec, 41 yds, 0.1 TD
LAC
PASS Justin Herbert224 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton58 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.0 rec, 64 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Quentin Johnston3.5 rec, 48 yds, 0.1 TD

Chargers by 2.8

Chargers are the pick here, favoured by 2.8 and winning 50% of 50 sims (projected 19-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Zach Allen (Broncos) vs Cole Strange (Chargers) - winner: Zach Allen, winning 56% of reps for 0.9 sacks and 6.2 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
In the Trenches
  • The Broncos' quarterback should have time; the Chargers win just 50% of reps for 5.8 sacks a game, with Tuli Tuipulotu (3.1 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Chargers' quarterback should have time; the Broncos win just 51% of reps for 5.6 sacks a game, Nik Bonitto (2.2 sacks, 5.7 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • The Chargers' aerial attack runs through Ladd McConkey (49 yds a game, open on 54% of routes).
  • The Broncos will live and die with Jaylen Waddle, who comes open 51% of the time (49 yds a game).
  • Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 36% of routes, good for 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Chargers lean on Omarion Hampton, 13 carries for 58 yds a game at 4.4 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.
  • The Broncos' run game leans on J.K. Dobbins — 10 carries, 39 yds a game (4.0 a carry), with his best work off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLAC -2.8
Market lineDEN -3.5
Sim total34
Market total42.5
LAC by 2.8 (50% to win) Projected total 34 pts Justin Herbert ~224 pass yds (250+ 30%) Omarion Hampton ~58 rush yds (70+ 38%) Jaylen Waddle ~78 rec yds, 6.2 rec (70+ 54%)