DEN @ LV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 15 slate
DEN Broncos
26
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DEN80%26
LV20%17
17
LV Raiders
BET VALUE
MARKET DEN -4.5 · O/U 41.5

Projected Team Stats

DEN
LV
80% Win Probability 20%
404 Total Yards 302
265 Passing Yards 222
140 Rushing Yards 80
1.4 Sacks 1.9
1.2 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

DEN
PASS Bo Nix264 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins65 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle6.2 rec, 88 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Courtland Sutton5.1 rec, 66 yds, 0.5 TD
LV
PASS Kirk Cousins233 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty49 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tre Tucker6.1 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jalen Nailor3.7 rec, 42 yds, 0.1 TD

Broncos by 8.5

The model leans Broncos by 8.5, winning 80% of 50 sims (projected 26-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) - winner: Ja'Quan McMillian, holding him to 43 yds on just 33% open, 0.9 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 6.1 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs DJ Glaze (Raiders) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 56% of reps for 1.6 sacks and 2.9 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) vs Taron Johnson (Raiders) - winner: Jaylen Waddle, open on 63% of routes for 6.5/8.9, 60 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Broncos may have to manufacture pressure, winning 52% up front for 2.9 sacks a game (Nik Bonitto (1.6 sacks, 2.9 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Raiders — a 49% win rate, 4.3 sacks and 20.6 pressures a game — Maxx Crosby (2.9 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Look for Jaylen Waddle to eat: 6.5 catches and 60 yds a game for the Broncos.
  • Tre Tucker is the go-to for the Raiders, separating on 33% of routes for 43 yds a game.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos): 29% separation allowed, adding 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Broncos lean on J.K. Dobbins, 11 carries for 65 yds a game at 6.1 a carry, finding room off right tackle.
  • Ashton Jeanty sets the tempo for the Raiders — 49 yds a game on the ground at 3.4 a carry, with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDEN -8.5
Market lineDEN -4.5
Sim total43
Market total41.5
DEN by 8.5 (80% to win) Projected total 43 pts Bo Nix ~264 pass yds (250+ 56%) J.K. Dobbins ~65 rush yds (70+ 40%) Jaylen Waddle ~88 rec yds, 6.2 rec (70+ 70%)