DEN @ NE Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
DEN Broncos
25
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DEN68%25
NE32%19
19
NE Patriots
BET VALUE
Lean DEN +2.5 +8.6 pts
MARKET NE -2.5 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

DEN
NE
68% Win Probability 32%
377 Total Yards 337
236 Passing Yards 187
140 Rushing Yards 150
4.5 Sacks 3.0
1.7 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

DEN
PASS Bo Nix246 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins66 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle5.9 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Courtland Sutton5.2 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD
NE
PASS Drake Maye215 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson69 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC A.J. Brown4.9 rec, 62 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Romeo Doubs3.4 rec, 43 yds, 0.2 TD

Broncos by 6.1

Broncos are the pick here, favoured by 6.1 and winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 25-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Courtland Sutton (Broncos) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 37 yds on just 39% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs James Hudson III (Patriots) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 56% of reps for 3.2 sacks and 6.4 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Craig Woodson (Patriots) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 5.5 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs Taurean York (Broncos) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 5.1 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Quinn Meinerz (Broncos) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 55% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 4.3 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • The Broncos get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (8.5 sacks a game), led by Jonathon Cooper (3.2 sacks, 10.8 pressures a game).
  • The Broncos' quarterback should have time; the Patriots win just 51% of reps for 5.4 sacks a game, led by Dre'Mont Jones (1.7 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Broncos will live and die with Jaylen Waddle, who comes open 52% of the time (45 yds a game).
  • Look for A.J. Brown to eat: 5.8 catches and 40 yds a game for the Patriots.
  • Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 37% of routes — and 0.7 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • J.K. Dobbins carries the load for the Broncos, 12 carries for 66 yds a game at 5.5 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson carries the load for the Patriots, 14 carries for 69 yds a game at 5.1 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDEN -6.1
Market lineNE -2.5
Sim total43
Market total42.5
DEN by 6.1 (68% to win) Projected total 43 pts Bo Nix ~246 pass yds (250+ 42%) Rhamondre Stevenson ~69 rush yds (70+ 42%) Jaylen Waddle ~75 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 56%)