DEN @ NYJ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
DEN Broncos
23
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DEN74%23
NYJ26%16
16
NYJ Jets
BET VALUE
MARKET DEN -5.5 · O/U 39.5

Projected Team Stats

DEN
NYJ
74% Win Probability 26%
342 Total Yards 269
242 Passing Yards 164
100 Rushing Yards 105
2.8 Sacks 2.4
1.3 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

DEN
PASS Bo Nix253 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins46 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle5.5 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Courtland Sutton5.2 rec, 66 yds, 0.5 TD
NYJ
PASS Geno Smith184 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Breece Hall71 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.5 rec, 54 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Omar Cooper Jr.2.3 rec, 25 yds

Broncos by 6.8

The sim sides with Broncos: a 6.8-point edge and a 74% win rate over 50 runs (23-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Adonai Mitchell (Jets) vs Pat Surtain II (Broncos) - winner: Pat Surtain II, holding him to 11 yds on just 37% open, 0.5 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Breece Hall (Jets) vs Talanoa Hufanga (Broncos) - winner: Breece Hall, 4.8 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) vs Brandon Stephens (Jets) - winner: Jaylen Waddle, open on 60% of routes for 5.8/8.1, 54 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Jets' quarterback should have time; the Broncos win just 51% of reps for 5.0 sacks a game, with Nik Bonitto (2.1 sacks, 5.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Jets — a 49% win rate yields only 5.0 sacks and 20.9 pressures a game, with David Bailey (3.2 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Broncos will live and die with Jaylen Waddle, who comes open 60% of the time (54 yds a game).
  • Garrett Wilson is the engine of the Jets' passing game — 38 yds a game on 41% separation.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets): 34% separation allowed — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • J.K. Dobbins is the workhorse for the Broncos, churning 46 yds a game at 4.4 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.
  • Expect a steady diet of Breece Hall: 71 yds a game at 4.8 a carry for the Jets, churning off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDEN -6.8
Market lineDEN -5.5
Sim total38
Market total39.5
DEN by 6.8 (74% to win) Projected total 38 pts Bo Nix ~253 pass yds (250+ 46%) Breece Hall ~71 rush yds (70+ 44%) Jaylen Waddle ~80 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 52%)