DEN @ PIT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DEN Broncos
22
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DEN68%22
PIT32%17
17
PIT Steelers
BET VALUE
MARKET DEN -1.5 · O/U 41.5

Projected Team Stats

DEN
PIT
68% Win Probability 32%
347 Total Yards 313
235 Passing Yards 218
112 Rushing Yards 95
2.2 Sacks 2.6
1.3 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

DEN
PASS Bo Nix247 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins50 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle5.2 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Courtland Sutton5.2 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers231 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren62 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.6 rec, 59 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Germie Bernard4.8 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD

Broncos by 5.8

The sim sides with Broncos: a 5.8-point edge and a 68% win rate over 50 runs (22-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) vs Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) - winner: Ja'Quan McMillian, holding him to 34 yds on just 39% open, 0.8 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Broderick Jones (Steelers) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 57% of reps for 2.2 sacks and 3.7 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs DeShon Elliott (Steelers) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 4.7 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
In the Trenches
  • The Broncos may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.1 sacks a game — Nik Bonitto (2.2 sacks, 3.7 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Broncos' quarterback should have time; the Steelers win just 51% of reps for 5.6 sacks a game, led by T.J. Watt (1.4 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Broncos lean on Courtland Sutton, good for 4.8 catches and 42 yds a game while breaking open on 42% of his routes.
  • The Steelers will live and die with D.K. Metcalf, who comes open 39% of the time (34 yds a game).
  • On the back end, Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 35% of routes, adding 0.8 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of J.K. Dobbins: 50 yds a game at 4.7 a carry for the Broncos, churning off right tackle.
  • Jaylen Warren is the workhorse for the Steelers, churning 62 yds a game at 4.3 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDEN -5.8
Market lineDEN -1.5
Sim total39
Market total41.5
DEN by 5.8 (68% to win) Projected total 39 pts Bo Nix ~247 pass yds (250+ 52%) Jaylen Warren ~62 rush yds (70+ 36%) Jaylen Waddle ~75 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 48%)