DEN @ SF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DEN Broncos
25
PROJECTION
Week 4 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DEN66%25
SF34%19
19
SF 49ers
BET VALUE
Lean DEN +2.5 +8.5 pts
MARKET SF -2.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

DEN
SF
66% Win Probability 34%
389 Total Yards 346
258 Passing Yards 227
131 Rushing Yards 118
3.7 Sacks 2.4
1.6 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

DEN
PASS Bo Nix264 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins61 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle6.0 rec, 83 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Courtland Sutton5.6 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
SF
PASS Brock Purdy250 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey65 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Mike Evans4.7 rec, 61 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ricky Pearsall3.6 rec, 47 yds, 0.1 TD

Broncos by 6.0

Broncos are the pick here, favoured by 6.0 and winning 66% of 50 sims (projected 25-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Mike Evans (49ers) vs Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) - winner: Ja'Quan McMillian, holding him to 39 yds on just 34% open, 0.6 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 5.3 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) vs Upton Stout (49ers) - winner: Jaylen Waddle, open on 62% of routes for 6.0/8.7, 51 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Broncos — a 50% win rate, 7.5 sacks and 37.1 pressures a game (Jonathon Cooper (2.4 sacks, 9.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The 49ers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (5.4 sacks a game), with Nick Bosa (2.6 sacks, 5.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Broncos to feed Courtland Sutton: 6.2 catches for 53 yds a game, open 53% of the time.
  • Mike Evans is the go-to for the 49ers, separating on 34% of routes for 39 yds a game.
  • In coverage, Fred Warner (49ers) travels and erases — only 31% separation allowed, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of J.K. Dobbins: 61 yds a game at 5.3 a carry for the Broncos, finding room off the right edge.
  • On the ground, the 49ers ride Christian McCaffrey: 17 carries, 65 yds a game (3.9 a carry), doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDEN -6.0
Market lineSF -2.5
Sim total44
Market total46.5
DEN by 6.0 (66% to win) Projected total 44 pts Bo Nix ~264 pass yds (250+ 56%) Christian McCaffrey ~65 rush yds (70+ 34%) Jaylen Waddle ~83 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 62%)