DET @ ARZ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DET Lions
32
PROJECTION
DET 45 – ARZ 21
Week 5 50-sim average Sun 11 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
DET84%32 45
ARZ16%20 21
20
ARZ Cardinals
✓ RESULT DET by 24 model DET by 12.6, off by 11.4
✓ VALUE DET -5.5 WIN line at publish DET -5.5
✗ TOTAL 66 pts OVER O/U 54.5, model 52 lean under

Projected Team Stats

DET
ARZ
84% Win Probability 16%
424 Total Yards 327
298 Passing Yards 282
126 Rushing Yards 45
2.6 Sacks 1.9
0.8 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

DET
PASS Jared Goff288 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs87 rush yds, 1.2 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.2 rec, 85 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Sam LaPorta4.8 rec, 56 yds, 0.5 TD
ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett301 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love17 rush yds
REC Michael Wilson7.3 rec, 92 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.4.4 rec, 58 yds, 0.2 TD

Lions by 12.6

The sim sides with Lions: a 12.6-point edge and a 84% win rate over 50 runs (32-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Mack Wilson Sr. (Cardinals) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 6.3 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Elijah Wilkinson (Cardinals) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 57% of reps for 3.8 sacks and 9.5 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs D.J. Reed (Lions) - winner: D.J. Reed, holding him to 1.9 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Denzel Burke (Cardinals) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 64% of routes for 7.2/9.6, 69 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Lions — a 51% win rate yields only 5.2 sacks and 20.4 pressures a game, with Aidan Hutchinson (3.8 sacks, 9.5 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Lions' line should hold up: the Cardinals win just 49% of their reps, mustering 4.1 sacks and 13.3 pressures a game (Josh Sweat (3.1 sacks, 5.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Expect the Lions to feed Amon-Ra St. Brown: 7.2 catches for 69 yds a game, open 64% of the time.
  • The Cardinals lean on Michael Wilson, good for 9.1 catches and 76 yds a game while breaking open on 56% of his routes.
  • Garrett Williams (Cardinals) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 40% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Lions hand it to Jahmyr Gibbs early and often, 14 carries for 87 yds a game at 6.3 a carry, finding room off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Expect a steady diet of Jeremiyah Love: 17 yds a game at 1.9 a carry for the Cardinals.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -12.6
Market lineDET -5.5
Sim total52
Market total54.5
DET by 12.6 (84% to win) Projected total 52 pts Jacoby Brissett ~301 pass yds (250+ 76%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~87 rush yds (70+ 58%) Michael Wilson ~92 rec yds, 7.3 rec (70+ 64%)