DET @ ARZ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DET Lions
27
PROJECTION
Week 5 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DET84%27
ARZ16%16
16
ARZ Cardinals
BET VALUE
MARKET DET -8.5 · O/U 49.5

Projected Team Stats

DET
ARZ
84% Win Probability 16%
408 Total Yards 290
281 Passing Yards 216
127 Rushing Yards 74
4.3 Sacks 1.6
1.1 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

DET
PASS Jared Goff262 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs90 rush yds, 1.2 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.3 rec, 81 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.5 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD
ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett246 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love39 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.5.2 rec, 72 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Michael Wilson4.5 rec, 64 yds, 0.3 TD

Lions by 11.5

Lions are the pick here, favoured by 11.5 and winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 27-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Elijah Wilkinson (Cardinals) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 55% of reps for 4.6 sacks and 11.1 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Budda Baker (Cardinals) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.9 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Brian Branch (Lions) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 5.2 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Denzel Burke (Cardinals) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 65% of routes for 7.6/10.0, 69 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Lions — a 51% win rate yields only 8.0 sacks and 32.6 pressures a game, with Aidan Hutchinson (4.6 sacks, 11.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Lions' line should hold up: the Cardinals win just 51% of their reps, mustering 3.5 sacks and 6.5 pressures a game (Josh Sweat (3.1 sacks, 3.3 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Expect the Lions to feed Amon-Ra St. Brown: 7.6 catches for 69 yds a game, open 65% of the time.
  • The Cardinals lean on Marvin Harrison Jr., good for 6.0 catches and 50 yds a game while breaking open on 49% of his routes.
On the Ground
  • The Lions' run game leans on Jahmyr Gibbs — 15 carries, 90 yds a game (5.9 a carry), with the holes opening off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • Expect a steady diet of Jeremiyah Love: 39 yds a game at 5.2 a carry for the Cardinals, with his best work off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -11.5
Market lineDET -8.5
Sim total43
Market total49.5
DET by 11.5 (84% to win) Projected total 43 pts Jared Goff ~262 pass yds (250+ 58%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~90 rush yds (70+ 66%) Amon-Ra St. Brown ~81 rec yds, 6.3 rec (70+ 62%)