DET @ ATL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
DET Lions
24
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DET60%24
ATL40%21
21
ATL Falcons
BET VALUE
MARKET DET -3.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

DET
ATL
60% Win Probability 40%
354 Total Yards 326
249 Passing Yards 216
105 Rushing Yards 111
2.2 Sacks 1.1
1.1 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

DET
PASS Jared Goff246 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs73 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown5.6 rec, 67 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.4 rec, 57 yds, 0.4 TD
ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.230 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson72 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Drake London5.7 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.5 rec, 40 yds, 0.6 TD

Lions by 3.3

Run it 50 times and Lions win 60% of them, by 3.3 on average (24-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Xavier Watts (Falcons) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 4.9 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Brian Branch (Lions) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 4.7 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs Roger McCreary (Lions) - winner: Drake London, open on 64% of routes for 7.0/9.2, 58 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Billy Bowman Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 63% of routes for 6.9/9.5, 52 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Falcons' line should hold up: the Lions win just 50% of their reps, mustering 4.5 sacks and 20.5 pressures a game — Aidan Hutchinson (3.4 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Falcons may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 2.5 sacks a game, and Jalon Walker (2.2 sacks, 2.4 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Lions lean on Amon-Ra St. Brown, good for 6.9 catches and 52 yds a game while breaking open on 63% of his routes.
  • Drake London is the engine of the Falcons' passing game — 58 yds a game on 64% separation.
  • On the back end, Rock Ya-Sin (Lions) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 43% of routes with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Lions lean on Jahmyr Gibbs, 15 carries for 73 yds a game at 4.9 a carry, churning to the right side.
  • Expect a steady diet of Bijan Robinson: 72 yds a game at 4.7 a carry for the Falcons, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -3.3
Market lineDET -3.5
Sim total45
Market total48.5
DET by 3.3 (60% to win) Projected total 45 pts Jared Goff ~246 pass yds (250+ 54%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~73 rush yds (70+ 42%) Drake London ~75 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 52%)