DET @ BUF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DET Lions
28
PROJECTION
DET 31 – BUF 41
Week 2 50-sim average Thu 17 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
DET74%28 31
BUF26%21 41
21
BUF Bills
✗ RESULT BUF by 10 model DET by 7.5, off by 17.5
✗ BEST BET DET +4.5 LOSS line at publish BUF -4.5
✗ TOTAL 72 pts OVER O/U 53.5, model 49 lean under

Projected Team Stats

DET
BUF
74% Win Probability 26%
420 Total Yards 333
290 Passing Yards 215
130 Rushing Yards 118
2.6 Sacks 1.4
1.1 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

DET
PASS Jared Goff281 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs89 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.9 rec, 91 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.7 rec, 68 yds, 0.3 TD
BUF
PASS Josh Allen234 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH James Cook54 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC DJ Moore5.8 rec, 83 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Khalil Shakir3.3 rec, 37 yds, 0.1 TD

Lions by 7.5

The model leans Lions by 7.5, winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 28-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.8 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Maxwell Hairston (Bills) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 65% of routes for 7.8/10.5, 76 yds a game - the edge through the air.
  • Deone Walker (Bills) vs Christian Mahogany (Lions) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 57% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 0.3 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Lions — a 50% win rate yields only 5.9 sacks and 27.7 pressures a game, led by Aidan Hutchinson (3.6 sacks, 8.7 pressures a game).
  • The Lions' quarterback should have time; the Bills win just 51% of reps for 3.2 sacks a game, with Greg Rousseau (1.6 sacks, 4.2 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown should find soft spots all day, open 65% of the time for 76 yds a game.
  • Expect the Bills to feed DJ Moore: 7.4 catches for 68 yds a game, open 48% of the time.
On the Ground
  • The Lions' run game leans on Jahmyr Gibbs — 15 carries, 89 yds a game (5.8 a carry), doing his damage to the right side and moving the chains.
  • The Bills lean on James Cook, 14 carries for 54 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -7.5
Market lineBUF -4.5
Sim total49
Market total53.5
DET by 7.5 (74% to win) Projected total 49 pts Jared Goff ~281 pass yds (250+ 68%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~89 rush yds (70+ 60%) Amon-Ra St. Brown ~91 rec yds, 6.9 rec (70+ 66%)