DET @ BUF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DET Lions
31
PROJECTION
Week 2 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DET82%31
BUF18%19
19
BUF Bills
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take DET +3 +14.6 pts
MARKET BUF -3 · O/U 52.5

Projected Team Stats

DET
BUF
82% Win Probability 18%
441 Total Yards 317
299 Passing Yards 201
143 Rushing Yards 116
3.4 Sacks 1.5
1.0 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

DET
PASS Jared Goff289 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs108 rush yds, 1.5 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.4 rec, 83 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.9 rec, 77 yds, 0.5 TD
BUF
PASS Josh Allen225 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH James Cook55 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DJ Moore5.7 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid3.3 rec, 40 yds, 0.3 TD

Lions by 11.6

The model leans Lions by 11.6, winning 82% of 50 sims (projected 31-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 7.6 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Spencer Brown (Bills) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 58% of reps for 4.4 sacks and 9.4 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Deone Walker (Bills) vs Christian Mahogany (Lions) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 58% of reps for 2.5 sacks and 0.3 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Toriano Pride Jr. (Bills) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 65% of routes for 8.0/10.5, 72 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • The Bills' line should hold up: the Lions win just 50% of their reps, mustering 6.7 sacks and 28.6 pressures a game, and Aidan Hutchinson (4.4 sacks, 9.4 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Lions' line should hold up: the Bills win just 51% of their reps, mustering 2.9 sacks and 6.2 pressures a game (Deone Walker (2.5 sacks, 0.3 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Expect the Lions to feed Amon-Ra St. Brown: 8.0 catches for 72 yds a game, open 65% of the time.
  • DJ Moore headlines the Bills' receiving corps — 7.3 catches for 62 yds a game on 42% separation.
  • Few balls get past Roger McCreary (Lions), who yields separation on 42% of routes — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Jahmyr Gibbs is the workhorse for the Lions, churning 108 yds a game at 7.6 a carry, with his best work off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • James Cook carries the load for the Bills, 14 carries for 55 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, churning off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -11.6
Market lineBUF -3
Sim total50
Market total52.5
DET by 11.6 (82% to win) Projected total 50 pts Jared Goff ~289 pass yds (250+ 76%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~108 rush yds (70+ 70%) Amon-Ra St. Brown ~83 rec yds, 6.4 rec (70+ 58%)