DET @ CAR Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DET Lions
22
PROJECTION
Week 4 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DET72%22
CAR28%15
15
CAR Panthers
BET VALUE
MARKET DET -3 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

DET
CAR
72% Win Probability 28%
344 Total Yards 288
231 Passing Yards 208
113 Rushing Yards 80
2.2 Sacks 1.9
1.1 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

DET
PASS Jared Goff229 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs77 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.0 rec, 64 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jameson Williams3.7 rec, 45 yds, 0.2 TD
CAR
PASS Bryce Young223 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard41 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.4 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.2 rec, 49 yds, 0.3 TD

Lions by 7.0

Lions are the pick here, favoured by 7.0 and winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 22-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Taylor Moton (Panthers) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 58% of reps for 3.6 sacks and 9.3 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.4 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Jack Campbell (Lions) - winner: Jack Campbell, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Robert Rochell (Panthers) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 67% of routes for 7.7/10.2, 55 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Lions get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (4.9 sacks a game), with Aidan Hutchinson (3.6 sacks, 9.3 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Lions' line should hold up: the Panthers win just 51% of their reps, mustering 3.6 sacks and 7.3 pressures a game, and Jaelan Phillips (2.9 sacks, 3.8 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown is the go-to for the Lions, separating on 67% of routes for 55 yds a game.
  • Expect the Panthers to feed Tetairoa McMillan: 7.3 catches for 61 yds a game, open 57% of the time.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Mike Jackson (Panthers): 32% separation allowed, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Lions hand it to Jahmyr Gibbs early and often, 14 carries for 77 yds a game at 5.4 a carry, with his best work to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Chuba Hubbard is the workhorse for the Panthers, churning 41 yds a game at 3.0 a carry against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -7.0
Market lineDET -3
Sim total36
Market total47.5
DET by 7.0 (72% to win) Projected total 36 pts Jared Goff ~229 pass yds (250+ 32%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~77 rush yds (70+ 52%) Tetairoa McMillan ~71 rec yds, 5.4 rec (70+ 46%)