DET @ CAR Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DET Lions
25
PROJECTION
DET 26 – CAR 32
Week 4 50-sim average Sun 4 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
DET76%25 26
CAR24%18 32
18
CAR Panthers
✗ RESULT CAR by 6 model DET by 7.1, off by 13.1
✗ SPREAD DET -3.5 LOSS line at publish DET -3.5
✗ TOTAL 58 pts OVER O/U 50, model 43 lean under

Projected Team Stats

DET
CAR
76% Win Probability 24%
371 Total Yards 333
243 Passing Yards 257
127 Rushing Yards 76
3.0 Sacks 1.5
1.1 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

DET
PASS Jared Goff238 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs87 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown5.8 rec, 69 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Sam LaPorta4.3 rec, 45 yds, 0.5 TD
CAR
PASS Bryce Young277 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard38 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan6.1 rec, 83 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.5 rec, 60 yds, 0.3 TD

Lions by 7.1

Lions are the pick here, favoured by 7.1 and winning 76% of 50 sims (projected 25-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Monroe Freeling (Panthers) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 56% of reps for 3.9 sacks and 9.8 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Bobby Okereke (Panthers) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.6 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Jack Campbell (Lions) - winner: Jack Campbell, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Jaycee Horn (Panthers) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 61% of routes for 7.4/10.5, 54 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Lions get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (5.7 sacks a game), with Aidan Hutchinson (3.9 sacks, 9.8 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Lions' line should hold up: the Panthers win just 51% of their reps, mustering 3.6 sacks and 12.9 pressures a game, and Jaelan Phillips (2.7 sacks, 5.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown is the go-to for the Lions, separating on 61% of routes for 54 yds a game.
  • Expect the Panthers to feed Tetairoa McMillan: 8.0 catches for 70 yds a game, open 54% of the time.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Mike Jackson (Panthers): 33% separation allowed, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Lions hand it to Jahmyr Gibbs early and often, 16 carries for 87 yds a game at 5.6 a carry, with his best work to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Chuba Hubbard is the workhorse for the Panthers, churning 38 yds a game at 3.2 a carry against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -7.1
Market lineDET -3.5
Sim total43
Market total50
DET by 7.1 (76% to win) Projected total 43 pts Bryce Young ~277 pass yds (250+ 62%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~87 rush yds (70+ 58%) Tetairoa McMillan ~83 rec yds, 6.1 rec (70+ 64%)