DET @ CHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 17 slate
DET Lions
30
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
DET76%30
CHI24%21
21
CHI Bears

Projected Team Stats

DET
CHI
76% Win Probability 24%
417 Total Yards 359
270 Passing Yards 235
147 Rushing Yards 124
3.3 Sacks 2.0
0.8 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

DET
PASS Jared Goff272 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs102 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.4 rec, 79 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Sam LaPorta4.4 rec, 54 yds, 0.5 TD
CHI
PASS Caleb Williams258 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift53 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.5 rec, 85 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Luther Burden III4.0 rec, 54 yds, 0.2 TD

Lions by 8.6

The sim sides with Lions: a 8.6-point edge and a 76% win rate over 50 runs (30-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Cam Lewis (Bears) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 6.2 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
In the Trenches
  • The Lions may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 6.7 sacks a game (Aidan Hutchinson (4.2 sacks, 9.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bears — a 49% win rate yields only 3.9 sacks and 13.9 pressures a game, led by Dayo Odeyingbo (0.8 sacks, 5.2 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown should find soft spots all day, open 53% of the time for 55 yds a game.
  • Rome Odunze headlines the Bears' receiving corps — 7.2 catches for 70 yds a game on 52% separation.
  • In coverage, Brian Branch (Lions) travels and erases — only 39% separation allowed — and 0.0 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Jahmyr Gibbs is the workhorse for the Lions, churning 102 yds a game at 6.2 a carry, doing his damage to the right side and controlling the clock.
  • D'Andre Swift is the workhorse for the Bears, churning 53 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

DET by 8.6 (76% to win) Projected total 51 pts Jared Goff ~272 pass yds (250+ 64%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~102 rush yds (70+ 76%) Rome Odunze ~85 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 66%)