DET @ CHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
DET Lions
24
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DET62%24
CHI38%18
18
CHI Bears
BET VALUE
Lean DET +1.5 +7.7 pts
MARKET CHI -1.5 · O/U 49.5

Projected Team Stats

DET
CHI
62% Win Probability 38%
368 Total Yards 313
236 Passing Yards 216
132 Rushing Yards 97
3.7 Sacks 1.8
1.3 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

DET
PASS Jared Goff233 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs86 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown5.4 rec, 60 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.2 rec, 55 yds, 0.2 TD
CHI
PASS Caleb Williams237 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift41 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.1 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.6 rec, 44 yds, 0.1 TD

Lions by 6.2

The model leans Lions by 6.2, winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 24-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Dillon Thieneman (Bears) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.3 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Gervon Dexter Sr. (Bears) vs Christian Mahogany (Lions) - winner: Gervon Dexter Sr., winning 58% of reps for 2.6 sacks and 0.4 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Tyrique Stevenson (Bears) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 63% of routes for 7.8/10.1, 54 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Lions may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 7.7 sacks a game, and Aidan Hutchinson (4.9 sacks, 9.7 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bears — a 51% win rate yields only 3.3 sacks and 7.0 pressures a game, Gervon Dexter Sr. (2.6 sacks, 0.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown is the engine of the Lions' passing game — 54 yds a game on 63% separation.
  • Look for Rome Odunze to eat: 5.9 catches and 51 yds a game for the Bears.
  • Devin Bush (Bears) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 42% of routes with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Lions lean on Jahmyr Gibbs, 16 carries for 86 yds a game at 5.3 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.
  • Expect a steady diet of D'Andre Swift: 41 yds a game at 3.4 a carry for the Bears, churning off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -6.2
Market lineCHI -1.5
Sim total42
Market total49.5
DET by 6.2 (62% to win) Projected total 42 pts Caleb Williams ~237 pass yds (250+ 44%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~86 rush yds (70+ 74%) Rome Odunze ~74 rec yds, 5.1 rec (70+ 44%)