DET @ GB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DET Lions
30
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
DET64%30
GB36%23
23
GB Packers

Projected Team Stats

DET
GB
64% Win Probability 36%
415 Total Yards 348
281 Passing Yards 314
133 Rushing Yards 34
1.4 Sacks 1.4
1.2 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

DET
PASS Jared Goff267 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs83 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.7 rec, 84 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Sam LaPorta4.9 rec, 56 yds, 0.7 TD
GB
PASS Jordan Love320 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH MarShawn Lloyd11 rush yds
REC Christian Watson6.7 rec, 101 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Matthew Golden4.8 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD

Lions by 6.3

Run it 50 times and Lions win 64% of them, by 6.3 on average (30-23).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Roger McCreary (Lions) - winner: Roger McCreary, holding him to 1.2 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.9 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Anthony Belton (Packers) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 57% of reps for 2.6 sacks and 6.5 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Christian Watson (Packers) vs D.J. Reed (Lions) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 62% of routes for 9.3/11.7, 91 yds a game - money in this spot.
  • Matthew Golden (Packers) vs Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (Lions) - winner: Matthew Golden, open on 61% of routes for 5.3/7.1, 56 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Lions — a 52% win rate, 3.3 sacks and 11.6 pressures a game — Aidan Hutchinson (2.6 sacks, 6.5 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Packers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (3.9 sacks a game), led by Lukas Van Ness (2.0 sacks, 3.4 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown headlines the Lions' receiving corps — 7.7 catches for 65 yds a game on 58% separation.
  • The Packers' aerial attack runs through Christian Watson (91 yds a game, open on 62% of routes).
  • Brian Branch (Lions) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 37% of routes with 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Jahmyr Gibbs: 83 yds a game at 5.9 a carry for the Lions, with his best work off the right edge.
  • MarShawn Lloyd sets the tempo for the Packers — 11 yds a game on the ground at 1.2 a carry into a stout front.

Model vs Market

DET by 6.3 (64% to win) Projected total 53 pts Jordan Love ~320 pass yds (250+ 90%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~83 rush yds (70+ 54%) Christian Watson ~101 rec yds, 6.7 rec (70+ 78%)