DET @ GB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DET Lions
23
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DET68%23
GB32%19
19
GB Packers
BET VALUE
Lean DET +2.5 +5.8 pts
MARKET GB -2.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

DET
GB
68% Win Probability 32%
376 Total Yards 300
262 Passing Yards 231
114 Rushing Yards 69
1.9 Sacks 1.9
1.3 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

DET
PASS Jared Goff266 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs72 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.2 rec, 72 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.8 rec, 64 yds, 0.3 TD
GB
PASS Jordan Love241 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs47 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Christian Watson4.9 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jayden Reed3.6 rec, 43 yds, 0.2 TD

Lions by 3.3

Run it 50 times and Lions win 68% of them, by 3.3 on average (23-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Penei Sewell (Lions) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 56% of reps for 3.6 sacks and 5.5 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 4.7 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs Jack Campbell (Lions) - winner: Jack Campbell, holding him to 3.3 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Benjamin St-Juste (Packers) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 65% of routes for 7.9/10.5, 61 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Lions get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (3.9 sacks a game), led by Aidan Hutchinson (2.8 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Packers — a 52% win rate, 3.9 sacks and 9.4 pressures a game — Micah Parsons (3.6 sacks, 5.5 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown is the go-to for the Lions, separating on 65% of routes for 61 yds a game.
  • The Packers will live and die with Christian Watson, who comes open 56% of the time (69 yds a game).
  • Few balls get past Brian Branch (Lions), who yields separation on 43% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Lions' run game leans on Jahmyr Gibbs — 15 carries, 72 yds a game (4.7 a carry), with the holes opening off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • The Packers lean on Josh Jacobs, 14 carries for 47 yds a game at 3.3 a carry.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -3.3
Market lineGB -2.5
Sim total42
Market total47.5
DET by 3.3 (68% to win) Projected total 42 pts Jared Goff ~266 pass yds (250+ 72%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~72 rush yds (70+ 58%) Christian Watson ~74 rec yds, 4.9 rec (70+ 48%)