DET @ MIA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 9 slate
DET Lions
31
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
DET90%31
MIA10%15
15
MIA Dolphins

Projected Team Stats

DET
MIA
90% Win Probability 10%
408 Total Yards 286
268 Passing Yards 203
140 Rushing Yards 83
2.9 Sacks 1.6
0.9 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

DET
PASS Jared Goff250 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs86 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown5.5 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.1 rec, 63 yds, 0.5 TD
MIA
PASS Malik Willis222 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Ollie Gordon II45 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Malik Washington4.1 rec, 58 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Caleb Douglas3.6 rec, 52 yds, 0.2 TD

Lions by 16.1

Lions are the pick here, favoured by 16.1 and winning 90% of 50 sims (projected 31-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 6.1 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Chris Johnson (Dolphins) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 61% of routes for 6.4/8.9, 57 yds a game - money in this spot.
  • Tyleik Williams (Lions) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Tyleik Williams, winning 55% of reps for 0.1 sacks and 3.0 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • The Lions may have to manufacture pressure, winning 53% up front for 5.7 sacks a game — Aidan Hutchinson (3.1 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Dolphins get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (3.4 sacks a game), led by Joshua Uche (2.7 sacks, 5.0 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown should find soft spots all day, open 61% of the time for 57 yds a game.
  • Look for Malik Washington to eat: 4.6 catches and 42 yds a game for the Dolphins.
  • On the back end, Brian Branch (Lions) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 44% of routes with 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Jahmyr Gibbs: 86 yds a game at 6.1 a carry for the Lions, churning off right tackle.
  • The Dolphins lean on Ollie Gordon II, 13 carries for 45 yds a game at 3.6 a carry, churning off the right edge.

Model vs Market

DET by 16.1 (90% to win) Projected total 46 pts Jared Goff ~250 pass yds (250+ 44%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~86 rush yds (70+ 68%) Amon-Ra St. Brown ~74 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 50%)