DET @ MIA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 9 slate
DET Lions
24
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DET72%24
MIA28%17
17
MIA Dolphins
BET VALUE
MARKET DET -6.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

DET
MIA
72% Win Probability 28%
375 Total Yards 293
266 Passing Yards 187
109 Rushing Yards 106
3.3 Sacks 1.3
1.1 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

DET
PASS Jared Goff263 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs76 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.0 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.0 rec, 59 yds, 0.5 TD
MIA
PASS Malik Willis210 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH De'Von Achane66 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Malik Washington4.4 rec, 48 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Greg Dulcich3.0 rec, 34 yds, 0.4 TD

Lions by 7.4

The sim sides with Lions: a 7.4-point edge and a 72% win rate over 50 runs (24-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.5 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs Brian Branch (Lions) - winner: De'Von Achane, 5.0 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Jay Tufele (Lions) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Jay Tufele, winning 58% of reps for 0.3 sacks and 3.8 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Storm Duck (Dolphins) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 61% of routes for 7.0/9.4, 62 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Lions — a 52% win rate, 6.4 sacks and 29.8 pressures a game (Aidan Hutchinson (3.8 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Lions' quarterback should have time; the Dolphins win just 50% of reps for 2.4 sacks a game, with Joshua Uche (1.6 sacks, 2.2 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Lions' aerial attack runs through Amon-Ra St. Brown (62 yds a game, open on 61% of routes).
  • Malik Washington is the engine of the Dolphins' passing game — 35 yds a game on 40% separation.
  • Few balls get past Rock Ya-Sin (Lions), who yields separation on 39% of routes — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Jahmyr Gibbs is the workhorse for the Lions, churning 76 yds a game at 5.5 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • De'Von Achane carries the load for the Dolphins, 13 carries for 66 yds a game at 5.0 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -7.4
Market lineDET -6.5
Sim total41
Market total47.5
DET by 7.4 (72% to win) Projected total 41 pts Jared Goff ~263 pass yds (250+ 58%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~76 rush yds (70+ 54%) Amon-Ra St. Brown ~74 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 46%)