DET @ MIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DET Lions
25
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
DET78%25
MIN22%13
13
MIN Vikings
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take DET -1.5 +9.8 pts
MARKET DET -1.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

DET
MIN
78% Win Probability 22%
353 Total Yards 259
249 Passing Yards 181
103 Rushing Yards 78
3.1 Sacks 1.4
1.0 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

DET
PASS Jared Goff244 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs70 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown5.7 rec, 68 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.6 rec, 63 yds, 0.4 TD
MIN
PASS Kyler Murray203 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones36 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Justin Jefferson4.2 rec, 55 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Jauan Jennings4.0 rec, 47 yds

Lions by 11.3

Run it 50 times and Lions win 78% of them, by 11.3 on average (25-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Christian Darrisaw (Vikings) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 57% of reps for 3.5 sacks and 9.2 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Theo Jackson (Vikings) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.0 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Aaron Jones (Vikings) vs Jack Campbell (Lions) - winner: Jack Campbell, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • T.J. Hockenson (Vikings) vs Brian Branch (Lions) - winner: Brian Branch, holding him to 23 yds on just 39% open, 0.2 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Lions — a 51% win rate yields only 5.6 sacks and 25.9 pressures a game, Aidan Hutchinson (3.5 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Lions' line should hold up: the Vikings win just 51% of their reps, mustering 3.1 sacks and 6.7 pressures a game, and Dallas Turner (2.5 sacks, 2.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Amon-Ra St. Brown's show for the Lions: 55 yds a game, open on 57% of routes.
  • Through the air it is Justin Jefferson's show for the Vikings: 43 yds a game, open on 55% of routes.
  • On the back end, Brian Branch (Lions) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 33% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jahmyr Gibbs sets the tempo for the Lions — 70 yds a game on the ground at 5.0 a carry, finding room off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • Aaron Jones is the workhorse for the Vikings, churning 36 yds a game at 3.1 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -11.3
Market lineDET -1.5
Sim total38
Market total46.5
DET by 11.3 (78% to win) Projected total 38 pts Jared Goff ~244 pass yds (250+ 46%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~70 rush yds (70+ 46%) Amon-Ra St. Brown ~68 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 46%)