GB @ CHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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GB Packers
21
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
GB56%21
CHI44%20
20
CHI Bears
BET VALUE
MARKET CHI -1.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

GB
CHI
56% Win Probability 44%
341 Total Yards 330
234 Passing Yards 211
106 Rushing Yards 119
4.0 Sacks 1.9
1.6 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

GB
PASS Jordan Love238 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs66 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Christian Watson5.3 rec, 78 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jayden Reed3.5 rec, 45 yds, 0.1 TD
CHI
PASS Caleb Williams235 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift54 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.8 rec, 85 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.1 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD

Packers by 1.6

Run it 50 times and Packers win 56% of them, by 1.6 on average (21-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Christian Watson (Packers) vs Jaylon Johnson (Bears) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 60% of routes for 7.0/9.4, 67 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Packers — a 50% win rate, 7.5 sacks and 34.4 pressures a game (Micah Parsons (4.9 sacks, 10.9 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Packers' quarterback should have time; the Bears win just 51% of reps for 4.1 sacks a game, led by Montez Sweat (1.2 sacks, 6.0 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Christian Watson is the engine of the Packers' passing game — 67 yds a game on 60% separation.
  • Rome Odunze is the engine of the Bears' passing game — 61 yds a game on 48% separation.
  • In coverage, Devin Bush (Bears) travels and erases — only 41% separation allowed with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Packers' run game leans on Josh Jacobs — 17 carries, 66 yds a game (3.9 a carry), finding room off the right edge.
  • D'Andre Swift carries the load for the Bears, 14 carries for 54 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineGB -1.6
Market lineCHI -1.5
Sim total41
Market total47.5
GB by 1.6 (56% to win) Projected total 41 pts Jordan Love ~238 pass yds (250+ 46%) Josh Jacobs ~66 rush yds (70+ 40%) Rome Odunze ~85 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 66%)