GB @ DET Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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GB Packers
21
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
GB24%21
DET76%30
30
DET Lions
MARKET · O/U 52.5

Projected Team Stats

GB
DET
24% Win Probability 76%
333 Total Yards 411
295 Passing Yards 283
38 Rushing Yards 128
1.9 Sacks 1.6
1.2 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

GB
PASS Jordan Love307 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH MarShawn Lloyd10 rush yds
REC Christian Watson6.6 rec, 108 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Matthew Golden4.7 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
DET
PASS Jared Goff274 pass yds, 2.5 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs83 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.5 rec, 86 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.1 rec, 59 yds, 0.4 TD

Lions by 9.2

The sim sides with Lions: a 9.2-point edge and a 76% win rate over 50 runs (30-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Roger McCreary (Lions) - winner: Roger McCreary, holding him to 1.0 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.7 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Anthony Belton (Packers) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 58% of reps for 3.0 sacks and 5.7 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Christian Watson (Packers) vs D.J. Reed (Lions) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 64% of routes for 7.7/10.9, 81 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Carrington Valentine (Packers) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 59% of routes for 8.6/10.6, 76 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Packers' line should hold up: the Lions win just 53% of their reps, mustering 3.5 sacks and 10.2 pressures a game (Aidan Hutchinson (3.0 sacks, 5.7 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Packers — a 50% win rate yields only 3.7 sacks and 12.5 pressures a game, Lukas Van Ness (2.0 sacks, 3.5 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown is the engine of the Lions' passing game — 76 yds a game on 59% separation.
  • Christian Watson headlines the Packers' receiving corps — 7.7 catches for 81 yds a game on 64% separation.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Brian Branch (Lions): 39% separation allowed.
On the Ground
  • The Lions hand it to Jahmyr Gibbs early and often, 14 carries for 83 yds a game at 5.7 a carry, with his best work off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • MarShawn Lloyd is the workhorse for the Packers, churning 10 yds a game at 1.0 a carry against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -9.2
Market linen/a
Sim total52
Market total52.5
DET by 9.2 (76% to win) Projected total 52 pts Jordan Love ~307 pass yds (250+ 82%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~83 rush yds (70+ 52%) Christian Watson ~108 rec yds, 6.6 rec (70+ 84%)