GB @ DET Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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GB Packers
19
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
GB40%19
DET60%23
23
DET Lions
BET VALUE
MARKET DET -1.5 · O/U 50.5

Projected Team Stats

GB
DET
40% Win Probability 60%
301 Total Yards 370
233 Passing Yards 253
68 Rushing Yards 117
1.6 Sacks 2.0
1.2 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

GB
PASS Jordan Love244 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs43 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Christian Watson5.2 rec, 80 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jayden Reed3.2 rec, 42 yds, 0.2 TD
DET
PASS Jared Goff257 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs78 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.4 rec, 72 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.6 rec, 61 yds, 0.3 TD

Lions by 4.5

The sim sides with Lions: a 4.5-point edge and a 60% win rate over 50 runs (23-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs Zach Tom (Packers) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 56% of reps for 3.2 sacks and 8.0 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Blake Miller (Lions) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 57% of reps for 3.5 sacks and 5.4 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Javon Bullard (Packers) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.1 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs Brian Branch (Lions) - winner: Brian Branch, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Benjamin St-Juste (Packers) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 63% of routes for 9.2/10.7, 66 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Packers' line should hold up: the Lions win just 52% of their reps, mustering 4.3 sacks and 21.2 pressures a game (Aidan Hutchinson (3.2 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Packers — a 52% win rate yields only 3.7 sacks and 9.7 pressures a game, Micah Parsons (3.5 sacks, 5.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown is the engine of the Lions' passing game — 66 yds a game on 63% separation.
  • Christian Watson headlines the Packers' receiving corps — 6.6 catches for 67 yds a game on 58% separation.
  • On the back end, Keisean Nixon (Packers) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 42% of routes — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Jahmyr Gibbs is the workhorse for the Lions, churning 78 yds a game at 5.1 a carry, churning off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • The Packers hand it to Josh Jacobs early and often, 14 carries for 43 yds a game at 3.2 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -4.5
Market lineDET -1.5
Sim total42
Market total50.5
DET by 4.5 (60% to win) Projected total 42 pts Jared Goff ~257 pass yds (250+ 54%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~78 rush yds (70+ 56%) Christian Watson ~80 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 56%)