GB @ LA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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GB Packers
14
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
GB8%14
LA92%29
29
LA Rams

Projected Team Stats

GB
LA
8% Win Probability 92%
251 Total Yards 433
225 Passing Yards 298
26 Rushing Yards 135
1.8 Sacks 1.5
1.6 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

GB
PASS Jordan Love235 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH MarShawn Lloyd7 rush yds
REC Christian Watson5.5 rec, 71 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Matthew Golden4.5 rec, 57 yds, 0.2 TD
LA
PASS Matthew Stafford275 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams78 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.1 rec, 87 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Davante Adams6.0 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD

Rams by 15.2

Run it 50 times and Rams win 92% of them, by 15.2 on average (29-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 0.8 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.0 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Keisean Nixon (Packers) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 64% of routes for 10.8/12.7, 81 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
  • Aaron Donald (Rams) vs Aaron Banks (Packers) - winner: Aaron Donald, winning 57% of reps for 2.4 sacks and 0.2 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Rams — a 53% win rate yields only 3.6 sacks and 10.7 pressures a game, led by Byron Young (0.7 sacks, 5.2 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Packers — a 50% win rate, 4.0 sacks and 16.3 pressures a game (Lukas Van Ness (2.2 sacks, 4.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Rams will live and die with Puka Nacua, who comes open 64% of the time (81 yds a game).
  • The Packers will live and die with Christian Watson, who comes open 44% of the time (51 yds a game).
  • Receivers won't find much room against Quentin Lake (Rams): 35% separation allowed, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Rams hand it to Kyren Williams early and often, 16 carries for 78 yds a game at 5.0 a carry, finding room off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • MarShawn Lloyd is the workhorse for the Packers, churning 7 yds a game at 0.8 a carry against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

LA by 15.2 (92% to win) Projected total 44 pts Matthew Stafford ~275 pass yds (250+ 64%) Kyren Williams ~78 rush yds (70+ 60%) Puka Nacua ~87 rec yds, 7.1 rec (70+ 70%)