GB @ LA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
GB Packers
17
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
GB10%17
LA90%28
28
LA Rams
BET VALUE
Lean LA -3.5 +7.7 pts
MARKET LA -3.5 · O/U 49.5

Projected Team Stats

GB
LA
10% Win Probability 90%
292 Total Yards 436
239 Passing Yards 294
53 Rushing Yards 142
2.6 Sacks 2.6
1.1 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

GB
PASS Jordan Love256 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs36 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Christian Watson5.5 rec, 92 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jayden Reed3.3 rec, 40 yds, 0.1 TD
LA
PASS Matthew Stafford298 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams83 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.3 rec, 97 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Davante Adams4.7 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD

Rams by 11.2

Across 50 simulations, Rams come out on top 90% of the time by an average of 11.2 (28-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Warren McClendon Jr. (Rams) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 58% of reps for 4.4 sacks and 9.7 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs Kamren Curl (Rams) - winner: Kamren Curl, holding him to 2.3 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.7 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Keisean Nixon (Packers) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 63% of routes for 10.6/12.4, 90 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
  • Kobie Turner (Rams) vs Aaron Banks (Packers) - winner: Kobie Turner, winning 56% of reps for 0.1 sacks and 3.7 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
In the Trenches
  • The Rams get stonewalled often up front, winning only 54% of reps (4.9 sacks a game), Myles Garrett (2.9 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Packers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 5.5 sacks a game — Micah Parsons (4.4 sacks, 9.7 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Rams will live and die with Puka Nacua, who comes open 63% of the time (90 yds a game).
  • The Packers will live and die with Christian Watson, who comes open 52% of the time (65 yds a game).
  • Kamren Kinchens (Rams) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 42% of routes, good for 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Rams' run game leans on Kyren Williams — 17 carries, 83 yds a game (4.7 a carry), churning off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • The Packers lean on Josh Jacobs, 15 carries for 36 yds a game at 2.3 a carry.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -11.2
Market lineLA -3.5
Sim total45
Market total49.5
LA by 11.2 (90% to win) Projected total 45 pts Matthew Stafford ~298 pass yds (250+ 80%) Kyren Williams ~83 rush yds (70+ 70%) Puka Nacua ~97 rec yds, 7.3 rec (70+ 78%)