GB @ NE Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 9 slate
GB Packers
21
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
GB56%21
NE44%20
20
NE Patriots

Projected Team Stats

GB
NE
56% Win Probability 44%
313 Total Yards 341
255 Passing Yards 216
58 Rushing Yards 125
2.9 Sacks 1.6
1.3 Turnovers 1.7

Projected Leaders

GB
PASS Jordan Love263 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH MarShawn Lloyd20 rush yds
REC Christian Watson6.2 rec, 92 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Matthew Golden4.8 rec, 64 yds, 0.4 TD
NE
PASS Drake Maye232 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson54 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Romeo Doubs4.1 rec, 56 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Efton Chism III3.8 rec, 50 yds, 0.3 TD

Packers by 0.4

Across 50 simulations, Packers come out on top 56% of the time by an average of 0.4 (21-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 1.9 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Travis Glover (Packers) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 57% of reps for 2.1 sacks and 0.3 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Packers — a 49% win rate, 5.7 sacks and 29.0 pressures a game — Lukas Van Ness (2.5 sacks, 5.7 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Packers' line should hold up: the Patriots win just 53% of their reps, mustering 3.5 sacks and 11.6 pressures a game (Dre'Mont Jones (0.7 sacks, 4.7 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Christian Watson is the go-to for the Packers, separating on 51% of routes for 63 yds a game.
  • Romeo Doubs is the engine of the Patriots' passing game — 39 yds a game on 50% separation.
  • On the back end, Carlton Davis III (Patriots) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 40% of routes with 0.5 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of MarShawn Lloyd: 20 yds a game at 1.9 a carry for the Packers.
  • The Patriots hand it to Rhamondre Stevenson early and often, 14 carries for 54 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge.

Model vs Market

GB by 0.4 (56% to win) Projected total 41 pts Jordan Love ~263 pass yds (250+ 60%) Rhamondre Stevenson ~54 rush yds (70+ 18%) Christian Watson ~92 rec yds, 6.2 rec (70+ 68%)