GB @ NE Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 9 slate
GB Packers
21
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
GB54%21
NE46%20
20
NE Patriots
BET VALUE
MARKET NE -1.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

GB
NE
54% Win Probability 46%
318 Total Yards 338
229 Passing Yards 209
89 Rushing Yards 130
5.0 Sacks 2.2
1.2 Turnovers 1.8

Projected Leaders

GB
PASS Jordan Love240 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs52 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Christian Watson5.3 rec, 79 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jayden Reed3.6 rec, 41 yds, 0.1 TD
NE
PASS Drake Maye235 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson57 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC A.J. Brown4.9 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Romeo Doubs3.2 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD

Packers by 1.0

Packers are the pick here, favoured by 1.0 and winning 54% of 50 sims (projected 21-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Micah Parsons (Packers) vs James Hudson III (Patriots) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 56% of reps for 6.0 sacks and 10.7 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Anthony Belton (Packers) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 56% of reps for 1.8 sacks and 5.3 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Milton Williams (Patriots) vs Sean Rhyan (Packers) - winner: Milton Williams, winning 57% of reps for 0.4 sacks and 4.9 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs Xavier McKinney (Packers) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 4.7 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
In the Trenches
  • The Packers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (9.2 sacks a game), with Micah Parsons (6.0 sacks, 10.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Patriots — a 53% win rate yields only 4.6 sacks and 29.5 pressures a game, Dre'Mont Jones (1.2 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Look for Christian Watson to eat: 6.9 catches and 58 yds a game for the Packers.
  • Through the air it is A.J. Brown's show for the Patriots: 58 yds a game, open on 55% of routes.
  • Few balls get past Edgerrin Cooper (Packers), who yields separation on 41% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Josh Jacobs sets the tempo for the Packers — 52 yds a game on the ground at 3.2 a carry into a stout front.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson sets the tempo for the Patriots — 57 yds a game on the ground at 4.7 a carry, finding room to the right side and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

Sim lineGB -1.0
Market lineNE -1.5
Sim total42
Market total46.5
GB by 1.0 (54% to win) Projected total 42 pts Jordan Love ~240 pass yds (250+ 44%) Rhamondre Stevenson ~57 rush yds (70+ 32%) Christian Watson ~79 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 56%)