GB @ NO Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
GB Packers
24
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
GB70%24
NO30%16
16
NO Saints
BET VALUE
MARKET GB -4.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

GB
NO
70% Win Probability 30%
356 Total Yards 307
264 Passing Yards 232
92 Rushing Yards 75
2.2 Sacks 2.1
1.0 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

GB
PASS Jordan Love263 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs52 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Christian Watson5.9 rec, 97 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Jayden Reed3.6 rec, 49 yds, 0.3 TD
NO
PASS Tyler Shough244 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.40 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Chris Olave6.5 rec, 82 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jordyn Tyson5.0 rec, 59 yds, 0.2 TD

Packers by 7.7

Across 50 simulations, Packers come out on top 70% of the time by an average of 7.7 (24-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Kelvin Banks Jr. (Saints) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 57% of reps for 3.3 sacks and 7.7 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
In the Trenches
  • The Saints' quarterback should have time; the Packers win just 50% of reps for 4.2 sacks a game, with Micah Parsons (3.3 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Saints get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (4.5 sacks a game), Chase Young (3.1 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Christian Watson should find soft spots all day, open 55% of the time for 79 yds a game.
  • Expect the Saints to feed Chris Olave: 9.2 catches for 72 yds a game, open 55% of the time.
  • Xavier McKinney (Packers) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 39% of his coverage snaps, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Packers lean on Josh Jacobs, 14 carries for 52 yds a game at 3.6 a carry, with his best work off right tackle.
  • Travis Etienne Jr. sets the tempo for the Saints — 40 yds a game on the ground at 3.8 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineGB -7.7
Market lineGB -4.5
Sim total40
Market total45.5
GB by 7.7 (70% to win) Projected total 40 pts Jordan Love ~263 pass yds (250+ 58%) Josh Jacobs ~52 rush yds (70+ 16%) Christian Watson ~97 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 74%)