GB @ NYJ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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GB Packers
20
PROJECTION
Week 2 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
GB64%20
NYJ36%17
17
NYJ Jets
BET VALUE
MARKET GB -6.5 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

GB
NYJ
64% Win Probability 36%
298 Total Yards 296
234 Passing Yards 187
64 Rushing Yards 110
2.3 Sacks 1.8
1.2 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

GB
PASS Jordan Love243 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs41 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Christian Watson4.7 rec, 75 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jayden Reed3.7 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD
NYJ
PASS Geno Smith203 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Breece Hall73 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.6 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Kenyon Sadiq3.0 rec, 30 yds, 0.2 TD

Packers by 2.2

Run it 50 times and Packers win 64% of them, by 2.2 on average (20-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Armand Membou (Jets) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 57% of reps for 3.6 sacks and 8.2 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs Mykal Walker (Jets) - winner: Mykal Walker, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Breece Hall (Jets) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Breece Hall, 4.6 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Christian Watson (Packers) vs Nahshon Wright (Jets) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 58% of routes for 5.9/8.1, 64 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Packers — a 52% win rate, 4.4 sacks and 19.9 pressures a game (Micah Parsons (3.6 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Jets may have to manufacture pressure, winning 52% up front for 3.7 sacks a game (David Bailey (2.0 sacks, 6.3 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Expect the Packers to feed Christian Watson: 5.9 catches for 64 yds a game, open 58% of the time.
  • The Jets' aerial attack runs through Garrett Wilson (43 yds a game, open on 50% of routes).
  • Xavier McKinney (Packers) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 33% of his coverage snaps with 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Packers lean on Josh Jacobs, 14 carries for 41 yds a game at 2.9 a carry.
  • Breece Hall is the workhorse for the Jets, churning 73 yds a game at 4.6 a carry, doing his damage to the right side and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineGB -2.2
Market lineGB -6.5
Sim total37
Market total42.5
GB by 2.2 (64% to win) Projected total 37 pts Jordan Love ~243 pass yds (250+ 48%) Breece Hall ~73 rush yds (70+ 54%) Christian Watson ~75 rec yds, 4.7 rec (70+ 46%)