GB @ TB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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GB Packers
23
PROJECTION
GB 17 – TB 14
Week 4 50-sim average Sun 4 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
GB70%23 17
TB30%17 14
17
TB Buccaneers
✓ RESULT GB by 3 model GB by 5.8, off by 2.8
✗ SPREAD GB -4 LOSS line at publish GB -4
• TOTAL 31 pts UNDER O/U 39.5, model 40

Projected Team Stats

GB
TB
70% Win Probability 30%
302 Total Yards 301
262 Passing Yards 215
39 Rushing Yards 86
3.2 Sacks 2.0
1.2 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

GB
PASS Jordan Love265 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Kaleb Johnson18 rush yds
REC Christian Watson5.9 rec, 88 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Matthew Golden4.7 rec, 68 yds, 0.5 TD
TB
PASS Baker Mayfield237 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving39 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka5.0 rec, 67 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.7 rec, 57 yds, 0.3 TD

Packers by 5.8

The sim sides with Packers: a 5.8-point edge and a 70% win rate over 50 runs (23-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kaleb Johnson (Packers) vs Benjamin Morrison (Buccaneers) - winner: Benjamin Morrison, holding him to 1.7 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Isaiah McDuffie, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Christian Watson (Packers) vs Zyon McCollum (Buccaneers) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 60% of routes for 6.4/9.8, 60 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Buccaneers' line should hold up: the Packers win just 49% of their reps, mustering 5.9 sacks and 28.1 pressures a game (Lukas Van Ness (3.3 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Packers' quarterback should have time; the Buccaneers win just 51% of reps for 3.8 sacks a game, with Yaya Diaby (1.0 sacks, 5.3 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Christian Watson should find soft spots all day, open 60% of the time for 60 yds a game.
  • Emeka Egbuka is the engine of the Buccaneers' passing game — 45 yds a game on 49% separation.
  • Javon Bullard (Packers) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 39% of routes — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Kaleb Johnson is the workhorse for the Packers, churning 18 yds a game at 1.7 a carry against a stingy front.
  • Bucky Irving sets the tempo for the Buccaneers — 39 yds a game on the ground at 3.0 a carry into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineGB -5.8
Market lineGB -4
Sim total40
Market total39.5
GB by 5.8 (70% to win) Projected total 40 pts Jordan Love ~265 pass yds (250+ 64%) Christian Watson ~88 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 54%)