GB @ TB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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GB Packers
24
PROJECTION
Week 4 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
GB74%24
TB26%15
15
TB Buccaneers
BET VALUE
Lean GB -1.5 +7.7 pts
MARKET GB -1.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

GB
TB
74% Win Probability 26%
342 Total Yards 287
244 Passing Yards 188
98 Rushing Yards 99
2.9 Sacks 2.1
0.9 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

GB
PASS Jordan Love240 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs57 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Christian Watson5.3 rec, 86 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jayden Reed3.9 rec, 53 yds, 0.3 TD
TB
PASS Baker Mayfield207 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving40 rush yds
REC Chris Godwin4.7 rec, 51 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka3.3 rec, 43 yds, 0.1 TD

Packers by 9.2

The sim sides with Packers: a 9.2-point edge and a 74% win rate over 50 runs (24-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Benjamin St-Juste (Packers) - winner: Benjamin St-Juste, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Rueben Bain Jr. (Buccaneers) vs Zach Tom (Packers) - winner: Rueben Bain Jr., winning 56% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 2.6 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Christian Watson (Packers) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 60% of routes for 6.6/8.7, 71 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Buccaneers' line should hold up: the Packers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.9 sacks and 26.8 pressures a game (Micah Parsons (4.1 sacks, 9.0 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Packers' quarterback should have time; the Buccaneers win just 52% of reps for 3.9 sacks a game, with Yaya Diaby (1.6 sacks, 4.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Christian Watson should find soft spots all day, open 60% of the time for 71 yds a game.
  • Chris Godwin is the engine of the Buccaneers' passing game — 40 yds a game on 53% separation.
  • Xavier McKinney (Packers) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 33% of routes — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Packers hand it to Josh Jacobs early and often, 15 carries for 57 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, churning off right tackle.
  • On the ground, the Buccaneers ride Bucky Irving: 14 carries, 40 yds a game (2.9 a carry) against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineGB -9.2
Market lineGB -1.5
Sim total39
Market total47.5
GB by 9.2 (74% to win) Projected total 39 pts Jordan Love ~240 pass yds (250+ 44%) Josh Jacobs ~57 rush yds (70+ 20%) Christian Watson ~86 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 68%)