HST @ CLV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 10 slate
HST Texans
24
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
HST90%24
CLV10%11
11
CLV Browns
BET VALUE
Lean HST -4.5 +8.0 pts
MARKET HST -4.5 · O/U 38.5

Projected Team Stats

HST
CLV
90% Win Probability 10%
330 Total Yards 194
228 Passing Yards 133
102 Rushing Yards 61
4.6 Sacks 2.3
1.5 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

HST
PASS C.J. Stroud229 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH David Montgomery57 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Nico Collins5.5 rec, 79 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tank Dell3.1 rec, 44 yds, 0.2 TD
CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson168 pass yds, 0.5 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins39 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jerry Jeudy3.9 rec, 42 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Denzel Boston2.9 rec, 39 yds

Texans by 12.5

The sim sides with Texans: a 12.5-point edge and a 90% win rate over 50 runs (24-11).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Spencer Fano (Browns) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 55% of reps for 4.3 sacks and 9.0 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Kamari Lassiter (Texans) - winner: Kamari Lassiter, holding him to 20 yds on just 31% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jalen Pitre, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Nico Collins (Texans) vs Tyson Campbell (Browns) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 62% of routes for 6.3/9.5, 55 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Texans — a 51% win rate yields only 7.7 sacks and 28.3 pressures a game, Will Anderson Jr. (4.3 sacks, 9.0 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Texans' line should hold up: the Browns win just 51% of their reps, mustering 4.5 sacks and 21.1 pressures a game (Jared Verse (1.6 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Nico Collins' show for the Texans: 55 yds a game, open on 62% of routes.
  • The Browns will live and die with Jerry Jeudy, who comes open 31% of the time (20 yds a game).
  • Kamari Lassiter (Texans) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 31% of routes, adding 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Texans lean on David Montgomery, 14 carries for 57 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, churning off the right edge.
  • The Browns' run game leans on Quinshon Judkins — 13 carries, 39 yds a game (3.1 a carry), with his best work off right tackle into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineHST -12.5
Market lineHST -4.5
Sim total35
Market total38.5
HST by 12.5 (90% to win) Projected total 35 pts C.J. Stroud ~229 pass yds (250+ 38%) David Montgomery ~57 rush yds (70+ 28%) Nico Collins ~79 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 56%)