HST @ GB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION
← Week 17 slate
HST
HST
GB
HST
Texans
19
PROJECTION
| WIN% | PTS | |
|---|---|---|
| HST | 50% | 19 |
| GB | 50% | 19 |
19
GB
Packers
BET VALUE
MARKET
GB -2.5 · O/U 42.5
Projected Team Stats
HSTGB
50%
Win Probability
50%
338
Total Yards
293
229
Passing Yards
233
110
Rushing Yards
59
2.5
Sacks
3.2
2.0
Turnovers
1.0
Projected Leaders
HST
PASS
C.J. Stroud250 pass yds, 1.2 TD
C.J. Stroud250 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH
David Montgomery57 rush yds, 0.4 TD
David Montgomery57 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC
Nico Collins6.0 rec, 81 yds, 0.3 TD
Nico Collins6.0 rec, 81 yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Dalton Schultz4.1 rec, 44 yds, 0.4 TD
Dalton Schultz4.1 rec, 44 yds, 0.4 TD
GB
PASS
Jordan Love248 pass yds, 1.3 TD
Jordan Love248 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH
Josh Jacobs41 rush yds, 0.4 TD
Josh Jacobs41 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC
Christian Watson5.3 rec, 86 yds, 0.5 TD
Christian Watson5.3 rec, 86 yds, 0.5 TD
REC
Jayden Reed3.6 rec, 39 yds, 0.1 TD
Jayden Reed3.6 rec, 39 yds, 0.1 TD
Packers by 0.2
Across 50 simulations, Packers come out on top 50% of the time by an average of 0.2 (19-19).
Matchup Breakdown
How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulationsKeys to the Game
- Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Braden Smith (Texans) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 56% of reps for 4.4 sacks and 9.8 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
- Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jalen Pitre, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
- Nico Collins (Texans) vs Keisean Nixon (Packers) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 59% of routes for 7.3/10.7, 61 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
- Pressure could be scarce for the Packers — a 52% win rate, 6.2 sacks and 27.0 pressures a game — Micah Parsons (4.4 sacks, 9.8 pressures a game) out front.
- The Packers' quarterback should have time; the Texans win just 52% of reps for 5.2 sacks a game, Will Anderson Jr. (3.1 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
- Christian Watson is the engine of the Packers' passing game — 67 yds a game on 48% separation.
- Nico Collins is the engine of the Texans' passing game — 61 yds a game on 59% separation.
- On the back end, Jalen Pitre (Texans) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 35% of routes with 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
- The Packers lean on Josh Jacobs, 15 carries for 41 yds a game at 2.7 a carry.
- David Montgomery is the workhorse for the Texans, churning 57 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.
Model vs Market
Sim lineGB -0.2
Market lineGB -2.5
Sim total38
Market total42.5
GB by 0.2 (50% to win) Projected total 38 pts C.J. Stroud ~250 pass yds (250+ 48%) David Montgomery ~57 rush yds (70+ 26%) Christian Watson ~86 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 60%)