HST @ IND Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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HST Texans
25
PROJECTION
HST 17 – IND 19
Week 3 50-sim average Sun 27 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
HST56%25 17
IND44%22 19
22
IND Colts
✗ RESULT IND by 2 model HST by 2.7, off by 4.7
✗ SPREAD HST -2.5 LOSS line at publish HST -2.5
✗ TOTAL 36 pts UNDER O/U 42.5, model 47 lean over

Projected Team Stats

HST
IND
56% Win Probability 44%
374 Total Yards 357
262 Passing Yards 249
112 Rushing Yards 108
2.3 Sacks 2.6
1.2 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

HST
PASS C.J. Stroud269 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH David Montgomery63 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Nico Collins5.7 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Dalton Schultz4.4 rec, 48 yds, 0.7 TD
IND
PASS Daniel Jones262 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor75 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Alec Pierce5.6 rec, 84 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Josh Downs4.0 rec, 47 yds, 0.3 TD

Texans by 2.7

Run it 50 times and Texans win 56% of them, by 2.7 on average (25-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.0 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts' line should hold up: the Texans win just 51% of their reps, mustering 4.7 sacks and 20.6 pressures a game (Will Anderson Jr. (3.1 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Colts get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (4.8 sacks a game), led by Laiatu Latu (2.1 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Look for Nico Collins to eat: 6.2 catches and 59 yds a game for the Texans.
  • Alec Pierce headlines the Colts' receiving corps — 7.0 catches for 65 yds a game on 52% separation.
  • Jalen Pitre (Texans) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 38% of his coverage snaps — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Texans' run game leans on David Montgomery — 14 carries, 63 yds a game (4.5 a carry), doing his damage off the right edge.
  • The Colts lean on Jonathan Taylor, 15 carries for 75 yds a game at 5.0 a carry, finding room to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineHST -2.7
Market lineHST -2.5
Sim total47
Market total42.5
HST by 2.7 (56% to win) Projected total 47 pts C.J. Stroud ~269 pass yds (250+ 58%) Jonathan Taylor ~75 rush yds (70+ 52%) Alec Pierce ~84 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 54%)