HST @ IND Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 3 slate
HST Texans
20
PROJECTION
Week 3 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
HST48%20
IND52%19
19
IND Colts
BET VALUE
MARKET HST -1.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

HST
IND
48% Win Probability 52%
329 Total Yards 323
224 Passing Yards 210
105 Rushing Yards 113
2.4 Sacks 2.4
1.6 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

HST
PASS C.J. Stroud234 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH David Montgomery58 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Nico Collins5.5 rec, 77 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tank Dell3.5 rec, 44 yds, 0.1 TD
IND
PASS Daniel Jones220 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor75 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Alec Pierce5.3 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tyler Warren4.5 rec, 45 yds, 0.4 TD

Texans by 1.4

The model leans Texans by 1.4, winning 48% of 50 sims (projected 20-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Jalen Travis (Colts) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 56% of reps for 3.4 sacks and 8.1 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Jalen Pitre (Texans) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 5.3 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts' quarterback should have time; the Texans win just 51% of reps for 5.2 sacks a game, with Will Anderson Jr. (3.4 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Colts — a 51% win rate, 5.1 sacks and 24.8 pressures a game (Laiatu Latu (3.5 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Texans lean on Nico Collins, good for 5.9 catches and 55 yds a game while breaking open on 51% of his routes.
  • Alec Pierce is the go-to for the Colts, separating on 48% of routes for 53 yds a game.
  • On the back end, Jalen Pitre (Texans) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 33% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • David Montgomery is the workhorse for the Texans, churning 58 yds a game at 4.3 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.
  • The Colts hand it to Jonathan Taylor early and often, 14 carries for 75 yds a game at 5.3 a carry, churning to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineHST -1.4
Market lineHST -1.5
Sim total40
Market total45.5
HST by 1.4 (48% to win) Projected total 40 pts C.J. Stroud ~234 pass yds (250+ 36%) Jonathan Taylor ~75 rush yds (70+ 46%) Nico Collins ~77 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 58%)