HST @ JAX Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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HST Texans
20
PROJECTION
Week 6 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
HST52%20
JAX48%19
19
JAX Jaguars
BET VALUE
MARKET HST -1.5 · O/U 41.5

Projected Team Stats

HST
JAX
52% Win Probability 48%
329 Total Yards 285
227 Passing Yards 209
102 Rushing Yards 75
3.1 Sacks 2.9
1.8 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

HST
PASS C.J. Stroud234 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH David Montgomery55 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Nico Collins5.8 rec, 79 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jayden Higgins3.5 rec, 46 yds, 0.3 TD
JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence225 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten27 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr.4.5 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jakobi Meyers3.7 rec, 42 yds, 0.1 TD

Texans by 1.2

Across 50 simulations, Texans come out on top 52% of the time by an average of 1.2 (20-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Kamari Lassiter (Texans) - winner: Kamari Lassiter, holding him to 37 yds on just 35% open, 0.7 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Tremon Smith (Texans) - winner: Tremon Smith, holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • The Jaguars' quarterback should have time; the Texans win just 50% of reps for 6.6 sacks a game, with Will Anderson Jr. (3.8 sacks, 9.4 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Jaguars — a 51% win rate, 5.8 sacks and 22.3 pressures a game, and Josh Hines-Allen (4.3 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Texans lean on Nico Collins, good for 6.5 catches and 56 yds a game while breaking open on 53% of his routes.
  • Expect the Jaguars to feed Brian Thomas Jr.: 4.5 catches for 37 yds a game, open 35% of the time.
  • Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 32% of routes, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of David Montgomery: 55 yds a game at 3.9 a carry for the Texans, with the holes opening off right tackle.
  • Bhayshul Tuten sets the tempo for the Jaguars — 27 yds a game on the ground at 2.2 a carry into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineHST -1.2
Market lineHST -1.5
Sim total39
Market total41.5
HST by 1.2 (52% to win) Projected total 39 pts C.J. Stroud ~234 pass yds (250+ 36%) David Montgomery ~55 rush yds (70+ 22%) Nico Collins ~79 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 54%)