HST @ JAX Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 6 slate
HST Texans
19
PROJECTION
HST 34 – JAX 31
Week 6 50-sim average Sun 18 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
HST52%19 34
JAX48%20 31
20
JAX Jaguars
✗ RESULT HST by 3 model JAX by 1.0, off by 4.0
✓ SPREAD HST +2.5 WIN line at publish JAX -2.5
✗ TOTAL 65 pts OVER O/U 42.5, model 39 lean under

Projected Team Stats

HST
JAX
52% Win Probability 48%
302 Total Yards 321
243 Passing Yards 237
59 Rushing Yards 84
2.8 Sacks 2.7
1.2 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

HST
PASS C.J. Stroud256 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH David Montgomery29 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Nico Collins5.4 rec, 77 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Dalton Schultz4.2 rec, 48 yds, 0.3 TD
JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence252 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten44 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Parker Washington5.3 rec, 78 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jakobi Meyers3.1 rec, 41 yds, 0.2 TD

Jaguars by 1.0

Across 50 simulations, Jaguars come out on top 48% of the time by an average of 1.0 (20-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Cole Van Lanen (Jaguars) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 57% of reps for 3.5 sacks and 8.6 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • David Montgomery (Texans) vs Jarrian Jones (Jaguars) - winner: Jarrian Jones, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Nico Collins (Texans) vs Montaric Brown (Jaguars) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 61% of routes for 7.3/9.7, 61 yds a game - open at will.
  • Parker Washington (Jaguars) vs Derek Stingley Jr. (Texans) - winner: Parker Washington, open on 59% of routes for 6.9/9.0, 66 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Jaguars get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.3 sacks a game), led by Josh Hines-Allen (3.4 sacks, 9.1 pressures a game).
  • The Texans may have to manufacture pressure, winning 52% up front for 5.2 sacks a game, and Will Anderson Jr. (3.5 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Parker Washington is the go-to for the Jaguars, separating on 59% of routes for 66 yds a game.
  • The Texans lean on Nico Collins, good for 7.3 catches and 61 yds a game while breaking open on 61% of his routes.
  • Ventrell Miller (Jaguars) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 35% of routes, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jaguars lean on Bhayshul Tuten, 13 carries for 44 yds a game at 3.4 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.
  • David Montgomery sets the tempo for the Texans — 29 yds a game on the ground at 2.4 a carry into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineJAX -1.0
Market lineJAX -2.5
Sim total39
Market total42.5
JAX by 1.0 (48% to win) Projected total 39 pts C.J. Stroud ~256 pass yds (250+ 54%) Parker Washington ~78 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 54%)