HST @ LAC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 9 slate
HST Texans
21
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
HST52%21
LAC48%19
19
LAC Chargers
BET VALUE
MARKET LAC -1.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

HST
LAC
52% Win Probability 48%
350 Total Yards 306
255 Passing Yards 202
95 Rushing Yards 104
3.8 Sacks 2.2
2.0 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

HST
PASS C.J. Stroud268 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH David Montgomery52 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Nico Collins6.3 rec, 89 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Dalton Schultz4.2 rec, 46 yds, 0.5 TD
LAC
PASS Justin Herbert227 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton49 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.7 rec, 64 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Quentin Johnston3.9 rec, 47 yds, 0.1 TD

Texans by 1.6

The sim sides with Texans: a 1.6-point edge and a 52% win rate over 50 runs (21-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Quentin Johnston (Chargers) vs Derek Stingley Jr. (Texans) - winner: Derek Stingley Jr., holding him to 24 yds on just 40% open, 0.5 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Texans — a 51% win rate, 7.5 sacks and 37.2 pressures a game — Will Anderson Jr. (4.2 sacks, 10.8 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Chargers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (4.8 sacks a game), led by Tuli Tuipulotu (3.2 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Look for Nico Collins to eat: 7.5 catches and 66 yds a game for the Texans.
  • Ladd McConkey should find soft spots all day, open 55% of the time for 53 yds a game.
  • Jalen Pitre (Texans) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 34% of his coverage snaps — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • David Montgomery sets the tempo for the Texans — 52 yds a game on the ground at 3.6 a carry, churning off the right edge.
  • Omarion Hampton sets the tempo for the Chargers — 49 yds a game on the ground at 4.4 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineHST -1.6
Market lineLAC -1.5
Sim total40
Market total43.5
HST by 1.6 (52% to win) Projected total 40 pts C.J. Stroud ~268 pass yds (250+ 56%) David Montgomery ~52 rush yds (70+ 16%) Nico Collins ~89 rec yds, 6.3 rec (70+ 62%)