HST @ PHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 16 slate
HST Texans
19
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
HST40%19
PHI60%21
21
PHI Eagles
BET VALUE
MARKET PHI -2.5 · O/U 41.5

Projected Team Stats

HST
PHI
40% Win Probability 60%
325 Total Yards 310
214 Passing Yards 199
111 Rushing Yards 111
3.6 Sacks 3.0
1.8 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

HST
PASS C.J. Stroud231 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH David Montgomery60 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Nico Collins5.9 rec, 72 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jayden Higgins3.4 rec, 39 yds, 0.2 TD
PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts219 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley55 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.7 rec, 62 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Makai Lemon4.6 rec, 60 yds, 0.4 TD

Eagles by 2.4

Eagles are the pick here, favoured by 2.4 and winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 21-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • DeVonta Smith (Eagles) vs Tremon Smith (Texans) - winner: DeVonta Smith, open on 63% of routes for 6.2/7.9, 55 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Texans' line should hold up: the Eagles win just 52% of their reps, mustering 5.8 sacks and 29.1 pressures a game — Jonathan Greenard (2.3 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Texans — a 50% win rate yields only 7.2 sacks and 29.2 pressures a game, Will Anderson Jr. (3.7 sacks, 9.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Look for DeVonta Smith to eat: 6.2 catches and 55 yds a game for the Eagles.
  • The Texans' aerial attack runs through Nico Collins (51 yds a game, open on 47% of routes).
  • On the back end, Jalen Pitre (Texans) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 35% of routes — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Saquon Barkley sets the tempo for the Eagles — 55 yds a game on the ground at 4.2 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.
  • David Montgomery carries the load for the Texans, 14 carries for 60 yds a game at 4.3 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim linePHI -2.4
Market linePHI -2.5
Sim total40
Market total41.5
PHI by 2.4 (60% to win) Projected total 40 pts C.J. Stroud ~231 pass yds (250+ 36%) David Montgomery ~60 rush yds (70+ 30%) Nico Collins ~72 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 40%)