HST @ PIT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
HST Texans
21
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
HST52%21
PIT48%19
19
PIT Steelers
BET VALUE
MARKET HST -1.5 · O/U 41.5

Projected Team Stats

HST
PIT
52% Win Probability 48%
308 Total Yards 312
223 Passing Yards 239
85 Rushing Yards 72
1.7 Sacks 2.7
1.4 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

HST
PASS C.J. Stroud230 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH David Montgomery45 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Nico Collins5.6 rec, 84 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jayden Higgins3.1 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD
PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers248 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren48 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.5 rec, 65 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Germie Bernard5.1 rec, 52 yds, 0.3 TD

Texans by 2.2

Across 50 simulations, Texans come out on top 52% of the time by an average of 2.2 (21-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) vs Kamari Lassiter (Texans) - winner: Kamari Lassiter, holding him to 42 yds on just 40% open, 0.9 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Troy Fautanu (Steelers) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 57% of reps for 3.0 sacks and 6.8 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Cameron Heyward (Steelers) vs Keylan Rutledge (Texans) - winner: Cameron Heyward, winning 56% of reps for 1.0 sacks and 3.4 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • The Steelers' line should hold up: the Texans win just 52% of their reps, mustering 3.8 sacks and 14.1 pressures a game (Will Anderson Jr. (3.0 sacks, 6.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Texans' quarterback should have time; the Steelers win just 52% of reps for 5.1 sacks a game, led by T.J. Watt (1.5 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Texans' aerial attack runs through Nico Collins (59 yds a game, open on 51% of routes).
  • The Steelers' aerial attack runs through D.K. Metcalf (42 yds a game, open on 40% of routes).
  • Jalen Pitre (Texans) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 35% of routes with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • David Montgomery carries the load for the Texans, 13 carries for 45 yds a game at 3.5 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.
  • Jaylen Warren sets the tempo for the Steelers — 48 yds a game on the ground at 3.5 a carry, finding room off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineHST -2.2
Market lineHST -1.5
Sim total39
Market total41.5
HST by 2.2 (52% to win) Projected total 39 pts Aaron Rodgers ~248 pass yds (250+ 50%) Jaylen Warren ~48 rush yds (70+ 14%) Nico Collins ~84 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 60%)