HST @ TEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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HST Texans
25
PROJECTION
Week 5 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
HST74%25
TEN26%13
13
TEN Titans
BET VALUE
Lean HST -3.5 +8.4 pts
MARKET HST -3.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

HST
TEN
74% Win Probability 26%
376 Total Yards 222
251 Passing Yards 154
125 Rushing Yards 69
4.6 Sacks 1.7
1.5 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

HST
PASS C.J. Stroud236 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH David Montgomery64 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Nico Collins5.5 rec, 79 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jayden Higgins3.3 rec, 47 yds, 0.3 TD
TEN
PASS Cam Ward188 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard37 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Carnell Tate3.6 rec, 43 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson3.7 rec, 42 yds

Texans by 11.9

Texans are the pick here, favoured by 11.9 and winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 25-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Keylan Rutledge (Texans) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 57% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 3.7 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • David Montgomery (Texans) vs Kevin Winston Jr. (Titans) - winner: David Montgomery, 4.7 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Titans' quarterback should have time; the Texans win just 51% of reps for 9.1 sacks a game, with Will Anderson Jr. (4.6 sacks, 11.2 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Titans — a 51% win rate, 3.9 sacks and 23.2 pressures a game (John Franklin-Myers (1.2 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Nico Collins' show for the Texans: 61 yds a game, open on 56% of routes.
  • The Titans will live and die with Carnell Tate, who comes open 49% of the time (30 yds a game).
  • Jalen Pitre (Texans) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 35% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • David Montgomery carries the load for the Texans, 14 carries for 64 yds a game at 4.7 a carry, churning off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Titans' run game leans on Tony Pollard — 11 carries, 37 yds a game (3.3 a carry), finding room to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineHST -11.9
Market lineHST -3.5
Sim total38
Market total43.5
HST by 11.9 (74% to win) Projected total 38 pts C.J. Stroud ~236 pass yds (250+ 38%) David Montgomery ~64 rush yds (70+ 40%) Nico Collins ~79 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 52%)