HST @ WAS Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
HST Texans
22
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
HST78%22
WAS22%14
14
WAS Commanders

Projected Team Stats

HST
WAS
78% Win Probability 22%
354 Total Yards 247
268 Passing Yards 171
86 Rushing Yards 76
4.3 Sacks 2.7
1.1 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

HST
PASS C.J. Stroud272 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH David Montgomery38 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Nico Collins5.9 rec, 86 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.3.8 rec, 54 yds, 0.2 TD
WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels199 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt35 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Terry McLaurin4.4 rec, 60 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Antonio Williams3.3 rec, 40 yds, 0.1 TD

Texans by 8.2

Texans are the pick here, favoured by 8.2 and winning 78% of 50 sims (projected 22-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Brandon Coleman (Commanders) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 57% of reps for 4.7 sacks and 10.1 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs Jake Hansen (Texans) - winner: Jake Hansen, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • David Montgomery (Texans) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Leo Chenal, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Nico Collins (Texans) vs Rasul Douglas (Commanders) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 62% of routes for 7.2/10.0, 68 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Texans — a 51% win rate yields only 8.0 sacks and 31.3 pressures a game, with Will Anderson Jr. (4.7 sacks, 10.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Commanders — a 51% win rate, 5.1 sacks and 28.5 pressures a game — Odafe Oweh (3.0 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Nico Collins is the go-to for the Texans, separating on 62% of routes for 68 yds a game.
  • The Commanders lean on Terry McLaurin, good for 4.8 catches and 43 yds a game while breaking open on 48% of his routes.
  • Jalen Pitre (Texans) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 33% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Texans' run game leans on David Montgomery — 12 carries, 38 yds a game (3.2 a carry), finding room off right tackle into a stout front.
  • On the ground, the Commanders ride Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 12 carries, 35 yds a game (2.9 a carry) against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

HST by 8.2 (78% to win) Projected total 36 pts C.J. Stroud ~272 pass yds (250+ 60%) Nico Collins ~86 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 66%)