HST @ WAS Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 14 slate
HST Texans
27
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
HST82%27
WAS18%16
16
WAS Commanders
BET VALUE
Lean HST -2.5 +8.6 pts
MARKET HST -2.5 · O/U 44.5

Projected Team Stats

HST
WAS
82% Win Probability 18%
385 Total Yards 240
265 Passing Yards 170
120 Rushing Yards 71
4.0 Sacks 2.0
1.7 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

HST
PASS C.J. Stroud263 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH David Montgomery69 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Nico Collins5.4 rec, 76 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Dalton Schultz4.6 rec, 55 yds, 0.5 TD
WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels200 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt42 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Terry McLaurin4.5 rec, 64 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Antonio Williams3.3 rec, 35 yds, 0.1 TD

Texans by 11.1

Texans are the pick here, favoured by 11.1 and winning 82% of 50 sims (projected 27-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • David Montgomery (Texans) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: David Montgomery, 5.1 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Tommy Togiai (Texans) vs Nick Allegretti (Commanders) - winner: Tommy Togiai, winning 56% of reps for 0.3 sacks and 5.6 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Nico Collins (Texans) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 62% of routes for 6.5/9.5, 56 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Commanders' line should hold up: the Texans win just 51% of their reps, mustering 7.6 sacks and 29.8 pressures a game, and Will Anderson Jr. (4.0 sacks, 9.6 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Texans' quarterback should have time; the Commanders win just 51% of reps for 4.2 sacks a game, led by Odafe Oweh (3.1 sacks, 8.7 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Nico Collins should find soft spots all day, open 62% of the time for 56 yds a game.
  • Look for Terry McLaurin to eat: 5.9 catches and 51 yds a game for the Commanders.
  • Jalen Pitre (Texans) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 33% of routes with 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Texans lean on David Montgomery, 14 carries for 69 yds a game at 5.1 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.
  • On the ground, the Commanders ride Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 13 carries, 42 yds a game (3.3 a carry), with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineHST -11.1
Market lineHST -2.5
Sim total43
Market total44.5
HST by 11.1 (82% to win) Projected total 43 pts C.J. Stroud ~263 pass yds (250+ 62%) David Montgomery ~69 rush yds (70+ 40%) Nico Collins ~76 rec yds, 5.4 rec (70+ 48%)